PRODCOM – how can we reduce the survey’s costs? Derek Bird Deputy Director Office for National Statistics

Background Pressure on public sector finances impacts on budgets for surveys Prodcom is an expensive survey requiring lots of detail Recognise that Eurostat has made steps with Prodcom: Quarterly Inquiry abolished 2005 – reducing survey questionnaires by 14k pa Products have reduced from 4,500 to 4,000

More can be done CPA 10 82 22 Chocolate and food preparations containing cocoa (excepted sweetened cocoa powder) other than in bulk forms PRODCOM 10822233 Filled chocolate blocks, slabs or bars consisting of a centre (including of cream, liqueur or fruit paste; excluding chocolate biscuits) 10822235 Chocolate blocks, slabs or bars with added cereal, fruit or nuts (excluding filled, chocolate biscuits) 10822239 Chocolate blocks, slabs or bars (excluding filled, with added cereal; fruit or nut chocolate biscuits) 10822243 Chocolates (including pralines) containing alcohol (excluding in blocks, slabs or bars) 10822245 Chocolates (excluding those containing alcohol, in blocks, slabs or bars) 10822253 Filled chocolate confectionery (excluding in blocks, slabs or bars, chocolate biscuits, chocolate 10822255 Chocolate confectionery (excluding filled, in blocks, slabs or bars, chocolate biscuits, chocolates 10822260 Sugar confectionery and substitutes therefore made from sugar substitution products, containing cocoa (including chocolate nougat) (excluding white chocolate) 10822270 Chocolate spreads 10822280 Preparations containing cocoa for making beverages 10822290 Food products with cocoa (excluding cocoa paste, butter, powder, blocks, slabs, bars, liquid, paste, powder, granular, other bulk form in packings > 2kg, to make beverages, chocolate spreads)

ONS position Survey questionnaires reduced from 24,000 to 21,500 Survey costs reduced from £726k (2007) to £675k (2010) But ONS budget set to fall by 20 per cent in next 4 years so more needs to be done… How?

Reducing costs Cut the sample Improve efficiency Change the mode of collection Reduce the number of items surveyed Revise the methodology All of the above?

Reducing costs – methodology option Range, frequency and timeliness fixed by Regulation But estimation of value and volume of Products could be introduced if other, high quality auxiliary information is available Consider running Prodcom over two years, estimating for products in ‘missing’ year

Reducing costs – methodology option Split products into coherent halves and collect each half in alternate years Estimate for each half in ‘missing’ years using PPI, for value, and (deflated) IoP for volume Revise for estimated half when next collected (business to provide t and t-1)

PPIs PPI available at 4 digit level showing change in value of product Could we apply this level to 8 digit PRODCOM as a good enough proxy? Issues: PPI sample derived from PRODCOM sample using PPIs in non-sampled year, assumes no change in manufacturing industry; cannot produce reliable volume data; Annual chainlinking

Time for a ‘grey sky’ agenda and your thoughts will be welcome Conclusion Time for a ‘grey sky’ agenda and your thoughts will be welcome Thank you