State Climate Office Weekly Drought Update

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Presentation transcript:

State Climate Office Weekly Drought Update Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D. NDSU, AES State Climatologist Updated 8/8/2019

US Drought Monitor

Divisional Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings (Last Month) July 2019 (Statewide: 23rd Wettest) July 2019 Ranking Table by Crop Districts Negative numbers indicate drier than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically drier conditions on record (125 years total).

Divisional Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings (Last 3 Months) May-July 2019 (Satewide:62nd Driest) May-July 2019 Ranking Table by Crop Districts Negative numbers indicate drier than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically drier conditions on record (125 years total).

30-Day Precipitation Total Accumulation % of Normal (NDAWN Images)

Long Term Precipitation % of Normal 60 Days 90 Days (NDAWN Images)

(% Change from previous week) Cumulative % area (% Change from previous week) DO 28% (+4%) D1 3% (+1%) None 72% (-4%)

Drought Change 1-week Change 4-week Change

State Coverage and Intensity

Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 295 (Aug 8, 2017) 329 (Aug 8, 2006) 31 (+5) Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyüz, 2007) Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 442 10,642 19,319 9,530 9653 2116 11,991 1714 17 weeks of no drought *Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve *Akyuz (2017)

Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature Soil Moisture Departure from Normal 5-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) (40mm = 1.6”)

Crassland Productivity Forecast (June-August) *These three maps show the forecasted percent change in grassland production compared to a county’s 34-year average. USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub: http://grasscast.agsci.colostate.edu/

Corn GDD Accumulation Forecast* Median Hard Freeze: Oct 9 Black Layer: Sep 26 This graphic is created based on 90-day corn, planted in Cass county on May 15. It shows estimated date of silking (Red Bar) and maturity(Black Bar) with respect to hard freeze climatology (Blue Bars). *U2U Decision Support Tools: https://hprcc.unl.edu/gdd.php

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Divide (Brandon Biwer): Moderately Dry. It’s been 3 weeks without significant rains in most areas of Divide County, the area is approaching drought conditions again. Lack of forage for livestock producers. Many producers will be forced to significantly cull their herds this fall. Benson (scott knoke): Moderately Dry. Crops here are showing signs of drought and areas of fields are collapsing. I am told if we don’t get rain in southern Benson Cunty there will be no soybeans to harvest. McHenry (Rachel Wald): Moderately Dry. Crops are suffering during a critical time in seed development. This is the time that pods are filling on soybeans and we need moisture to ensure it will make a crop. There is drought stress showing on all crops, trees and grass (pasture, hay land, and lawns) in the area. Pictures have been sent. There is a significant loss in hay production this year. In areas less than 30% of normal is what we are seeing. Forage will be an issue to find in this area, which may lead to more stock being sold or being sent out of area to feed, hauling forage in at a significant cost, and a need for forage testing and water quality management. Towner (Lindy L Berg): Moderately Dry. We are going on 2 weeks without rain, crops turning color very quickly and pastures are scarce.

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Grand Forks (Carrie Knutson): Mildly Dry. North of Larimore is dry. Ridges show drought damage to crops. Dunn (Greg Benz): Dry across the county, storms this week dumped heavy showers in select areas. warm and windy conditions last week. There were 4 grass fires. Mercer (craig askim): Mildly Dry . About inch of need rain across the county this week. Pastures are hurting, small grains harvest will start within the next ten days. Winter wheat harvest is occurring with average yields being reported. Forages are a little short. Eddy (karl hoppe): Near Normal. Hill tops in pastures are still dry from last year's drought. Grasses are short. Crops appear to be looking good. Pastures are green but short. Hopefully rains will continue but if not, then crops could show drought stress within a week or so. Same applies to Foster county. Slope (Shelby): Near Normal. Morton (Renae Gress): Mildly Dry. Logan (Sheldon Gerhardt): Mildly Wet.

Drought Pictures Drought stressed silage corn in southern Ward County near Ryder, ND. Photo Credit: Paige Brummund, NDSU Extension. This soybean field north of Minnewaukan (Benson County) is under severe moisture stress and yields will be hurt. Photo Credit: Scott Knoke, NDSU Extension.

Drought Pictures The soybean in this photo have or are near death due to lack of moisture. Benson County. Photo Credit: Scott Knoke, NDSU Extension. A Hay field in McHenry County. Thin and minimal amount of hay. Photo Credit: Rachel Wald, NDSU Extension.

Drought Pictures The same hay field as the previous photo prior to cutting in McHenry County. Photo Credit: Rachel Wald, NDSU Extension. A Hay field in McHenry County that is producing less than 30% of what they produced last year. An 80-acre hay field above produced 41 bales and another similar 80-acre field produced 34 bales. These fields in this area normally yield around 1150 bales. Photo Credit: Rachel Wald, NDSU Extension.

7-Day Forecast (Through noon Thu, Aug 15)

14-Day Forecast (Through noon Thu, Aug 22)

Week 3 to 4 Forecast Precipitation Temperature

Fall (Sep-Nov) 2019 Outlook Precipitation Temperature