The Fourth Quarter in Review

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Economic Conditions in New Hampshire and New England Yolanda Kodrzycki Vice President and Director, NEPPC Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Joint Economic.
Advertisements

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.
Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon Downers.
Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon Westmont,
Investment and Financial Services: What Every Financial Educator Should Know.
Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Calumet Area Industrial Commission Chicago, IL April.
Presented by: Robert F. DeLucia, C.F.A. Senior Economist Quarterly Economic And Financial Market Outlook November 2004.
Economic Outlook for Consumers William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago University of Illinois Center for.
Keith Forslund, Senior Portfolio Manager
| 1 EO /15 Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee | 1 EO /15.
Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Spring Manufacturers Institute Orlando, FL April.
Retirement Planning: It’s Never Too Soon – or Too Late – to Start AFN5600.
After the Recession: How Hot? David Wyss Chief Economist TVB New York September 8, 2004.
Brett Hammond, Ph.D. Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist, TIAA-CREF ARE WE THERE YET? THE “NEW NORMAL” ECONOMY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR INVESTORS.
2Q | 2011 Guide to the Markets As of March 31, 2011.
EO /13 | 1 Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee.
The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.
Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago Association of Spring Manufacturers Rosemont,
Review and Outlook NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE December 2002.
1 Coping With The Limits of Macroeconomic Policy The Recovery from the Great Recession In this presentation National forecasts are produced by Global Insight,
Unit 1.04 The Business Cycle Measuring Economic Activity.
Essential Standard 1.00 Understand the role of business in the global economy. 1.
MACRO ECONOMIC GOVERNMENT POLICY. NATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY GOALS Sustained economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) GDP is total amount.
Economic Assessment Wade Rousse Economic Outreach Specialist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago IASET Chicago, IL December 12, 2008.
City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.
Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Electronics Representatives Association.
© 2008 RiverSource Distributors, Inc. All rights reserved. Securities products are distributed by RiverSource Distributors, Inc., Member FINRA. RiverSource.
December 3, The State of The Economy In this presentation National forecasts are produced by Global Insight, Inc. State and Metropolitan forecasts.
© 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license.
Chapter 1 Why Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets?
Introduction to Business © Thomson South-Western ChapterChapter Economic Activity Measuring Economic Activity Economic Conditions Change.
© 2008 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. 1 The First Quarter in Review 3 3 Source: Transamerica Investment Management, “Manager Commentary-First.
Member FINRA/SIPC LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Putting Current Markets Into Perspective: Why to Stay Invested The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation.
Market Review February 29, 2016 INTEREST RATES Month-End 2/29/16 Month-End 1/31/16 Year End 12/31/15 Fed Funds Rate Yr Treasury DJ.
Objective 1.02 Understand economic conditions 1 Understand the role of business in the global economy.
THE ECONOMY AND THE MARKET TRSC 3413ECON-0511 © 2011 Transamerica Retirement Services Corporation. All rights reserved. FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY.
Chapter 1 Why Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets?
Noncompetitive division charts and policy questions The following pages provide a range of indicators (listed in alphabetical order) that you can use to.
© 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved.. FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY. 1 Investing Made Simple © 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved.
How much are we producing and buying????. total value of all the goods and services produced in a country in a year.  This is one way to measure a country’s.
From Turmoil to Recovery, What’s Next? Jean McGowan, CFA February 16, 2010.
© 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. 1 The Fourth Quarter in Review 2 3 Source: Transamerica Investment Management “First Quarter 2009.
Economic Outlook Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook William Strauss
Presented by StanCorp Equities, Inc., member FINRA
Period Ending 3/31/03 Total Assets $8,279,356
2017 Outlook For the Financial Markets
Presented by StanCorp Equities, Inc., member FINRA
The Third Quarter in Review
The Fourth Quarter in Review
30% • 30-day Treasury bills • Intermediate-term government bonds
The Second Quarter in Review
The Third Quarter in Review
Loanable Funds Problems
Understand the role of business in the global economy.
The Economy and Iowa Credit Unions
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
MEASURING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Economic Assessment The Transformer Association William Strauss
Date Target Funds Simplified one fund retirement approach
2017 Annual Market Review.
QUARTERLY MARKET REVIEW
QUARTERLY MARKET REVIEW
THE ECONOMY AND THE MARKET
2018 Annual Market Review.
2017 Annual Market Review.
© 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.19-1© 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.19-1 Chapter 1 Why Study Money, Banking, and Financial.
Economic Outlook Lake County Chamber of Commerce William Strauss
Beyond Investment Illusions
San Gabriel Valley Economic Forecast Summit
The Stock Market.
Presentation transcript:

The Fourth Quarter in Review 2 The Fourth Quarter in Review According to Transamerica Investment Management we are currently in the midst of a global recession because of the deepening financial crisis. During the fourth quarter, the U.S. and foreign governments continued to take increasingly aggressive and, in some cases, unprecedented monetary and fiscal steps to contain the crisis. The impact from the credit crisis has now transitioned into the reality of significantly slower economic growth globally. The unemployment rate increased from 6.1% at the end of the third quarter to 7.2% in December. Job losses accelerated during the fourth quarter, bringing total jobs lost in 2008 to over 2.5 million, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a positive note, prices for many consumer staples such as gasoline and food have fallen and inflation has decreased. The commodity price decline and slowing global economies have helped keep inflation moderated significantly from the elevated levels experienced during the first half of 2008. This allowed central banks to keep interest rates low. U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly during the fourth quarter as the Federal Reserve cut short-term rates essentially to zero and indicated a willingness to leave them near this level “for an extended period of time.” Recent evidence suggests that the unprecedented measures taken to repair the credit markets are beginning to work. Source: Transamerica Investment Management “First Quarter 2009 Outlook." 3 1 © 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY 1

Fourth Quarter Highlights Bond Market 4.58% Stock Market -21.94% During the fourth quarter, the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index increased by 4.58% and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 21.94%. It is important to keep in mind that an investment cannot be made directly in an index. An index is unmanaged and does not take into account the fees and expenses associated with an actively managed fund, so performance may differ. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. *Please see slide 8 for source and disclosures. 2 © 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. 2

Annual Stock Market Returns vs. Long-term Averages Long-term stock average is approximately 10% In the late 1990s, stocks experienced remarkable returns of 20% to 30%, but we were warned that these returns were not sustainable. At that time, Transamerica Retirement Services encouraged participants to focus on the long-term average return of the stock market which was about 10%. It is important to keep in mind that an investment cannot be made directly in an index. An index is unmanaged and does not take into account the fees and expenses associated with an actively managed fund, so performance may differ. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Long-term average is approximately 10%, not the 20% to the 30% returns we experienced in the late 90s, nor the negative returns we experienced the years prior to 2003. *Please see slide 8 for source and disclosures. 3 © 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. 3

Stock Index Returns This chart shows the returns of some of the major U.S. equity indices for the fourth quarter of 2008. Value stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000® Value Index, decreased by 22.18% while Growth stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000® Growth Index, decreased by 22.79%. The Russell 1000® Index (indicative of Blend-Value and Growth indicative of large-cap performance) decreased by 22.48%, and the Russell 2000® Index (small-cap performance) decreased by 26.12%. It is important to keep in mind that an investment cannot be made directly in an index. An index is unmanaged and does not take into account the fees and expenses associated with an actively managed fund, so performance may differ. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. *Please see slide 8 for source and disclosures. 4 © 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. 4

Bond Index Returns Annual Returns vs. Long-Term Averages Long-term historical average for bonds is approximately 7%, higher than what we’re seeing today. The rates of return that we are seeing in bonds today are lower than the long-term average rate of return for bonds, which is approximately 7%. Over the long term, as economic conditions improve bond returns may increase as well. It should be noted that in the recent low inflation environment, bond rates are likely to be lower than historical averages. It is important to keep in mind that an investment cannot be made directly in an index. An index is unmanaged and does not take into account the fees and expenses associated with an actively managed fund, so performance may differ. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please see slide 9 for source and disclosures. 5 © 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. 5

Bond Index Returns More Conservative More Aggressive 6 This chart shows the returns of some of the major bond indices. 3-Month Treasuries, as measured by the Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index, increased by 0.25%. Short-term Government Bonds, as measured by the Merrill Lynch 1-3 Year Treasury Index, increased by 2.69%. Intermediate Government Bonds, as measured by the Barclays Capital Intermediate Government Bond Index, increased by 6.16% for the quarter. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index, increased by 4.58%. High Yield Bonds, as measured by the Credit Suisse First Boston Global High Yield Index, decreased by 18.79%. It is important to keep in mind that an investment cannot be made directly in an index. An index is unmanaged and does not take into account the fees and expenses associated with an actively managed fund, so performance may differ. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. *Please see slide 9 for source and disclosures. 6 © 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. 6

Outlook: Rise in inflation is likely Lower mortgage rates Economic recovery is likely According to Transamerica Investment Management (TIM), fiscal and monetary stimulus will continue to play a leading role in an economic recovery. The United States was the first and most aggressive with fiscal and monetary policy responses to the crisis. We anticipate that the total cost of the fiscal stimulus may exceed $8 trillion over the long term, leading ultimately to increased inflationary pressures. We expect the unemployment rate to surpass 8% during 2009. Layoffs are expected to increase in the consolidating financial sector, as well as in manufacturing, where a leaner work force is likely to be a major part of restructuring the automotive sector. We anticipate exports and imports will slow during the next several quarters as the synchronized global recession takes hold. We also expect trade to be impacted as countries implement rescue packages intended to save domestic jobs. The government’s efforts to lower mortgage rates should make homes more affordable and offer refinancing opportunities. However, these factors are unlikely to stem a dramatic decline in retail sales. Interest rates will likely remain low while the economy continues to exhibit weakness and the Fed makes good on its commitment to keep interest rates low. We believe the United States will lead the global economic recovery, and that companies with significant domestic earnings exposure and minimal foreign exposure should outperform. The massive stimulus programs by U.S. and foreign governments should ultimately result in a global economic recovery. We expect financial markets to rally in anticipation of a recovery during mid- to late 2009. Source: Transamerica Investment Management, “First Quarter 2009 Outlook." 7 © 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. 7

Disclosures Speaker Note: Read all the disclosures. Slide 2 Source: Morningstar, Inc. Data as of December 31, 2008. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is comprised of securities from Barclays Capital Government/Corporate Bond Index, Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and the Asset-Backed Securities Index. Standard & Poor’s S&P 500 stock market index is comprised of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Transamerica Retirement Services is not affiliated with Barclays Capital or Standard & Poor’s. One cannot invest directly in an index. An index is unmanaged and does not take into account the fees and expenses associated with an actively managed fund, so performance may differ. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Slide 3 Source: Morningstar, Inc. The annual stock market returns shown are represented by the S&P 500 Index and are for the 10-year period from 1998-2008. Standard & Poor’s S&P 500 stock market index is comprised of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Transamerica Retirement Services is not affiliated with Standard & Poor’s or Morningstar, Inc. The long-term performance quoted for stocks is based on the 50-year average annual total return of the S&P 500 Index obtained from Russell/Mellon Analytical Services and Morningstar, Inc. from 1956-2005. Transamerica Retirement Services is not affiliated with Russell/Mellon Analytical Services or Morningstar, Inc. Slide 4 Source: Morningstar, Inc. Data as of December 31, 2008. The indices used to represent each investment style are as follows: Value – Russell 1000® Value Index; Growth – Russell 1000® Growth Index; Large-cap – Russell 1000® Index; and Small-cap – Russell 2000® Index. Russell Investments’ Russell 1000® Value Index is comprised of the 500 most value-oriented stock companies in the Russell 1000® Index, Russell 1000® Growth Index is comprised of the 500 most growth-oriented stock companies in the Russell 1000® Index, Russell 1000® Index is comprised of the largest 1,000 stock companies in the Russell 3000® Index, and Russell 2000® Index is comprised of 2,000 small company stocks. Transamerica Retirement Services is not affiliated with Russell Investments. Speaker Note: Read all the disclosures.

Disclosures Speaker Note: Read all the disclosures. Slide 5 Source: Morningstar, Inc. The annual bond market returns shown are represented by the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index and are for the 10-year period from 1998-2008. Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is comprised of securities from Barclays Capital Government/Corporate Bond Index, Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and the Asset-Backed Securities Index. Transamerica Retirement Services is not affiliated with Morningstar, Inc. or Barclays Capital. The long-term performance quoted for bonds is based on the 50-year average annual total return of the Intermediate-Term Government Bonds obtained from the Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation® 2001 Yearbook, Ibbotson Associates (1956-1985) and the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index obtained from Morningstar, Inc. (1986-2006). Transamerica Retirement Services is not affiliated with Ibbotson Associates or Morningstar, Inc. One cannot invest directly in an index. An index is unmanaged and does not take into account the fees and expenses associated with an actively managed fund, so performance may differ. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Slide 6 Source: Morningstar, Inc. Data as of December 31, 2008. The indices used to represent each investment style are as follows: 3-Month Treasury – Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index; Short-term Government Bond – Merrill Lynch 1-3 Year Treasury Index; Intermediate Government Bond – Barclays Capital Intermediate Government Bond Index; Investment Grade Bond – Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index; and High Yield Bond – Credit Suisse First Boston Global High Yield Index. The Citigroup 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index is comprised of U.S. Treasury bills with a remaining maturity of three months. The Merrill Lynch 1-3 Year Treasury Index is comprised of Treasury notes and bonds with maturities of 1-3 years. The Barclays Capital Intermediate Government Bond Index is comprised of all bonds covered by the Barclays Capital Government Bond Index with maturities between one and 9.99 years. The Credit Suisse First Boston Global High Yield Index is comprised of issues rated BB and below by S&P or Moody’s with par amounts greater than $75 million. Transamerica Retirement Services is not affiliated with Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, or Credit Suisse First Boston. Speaker Note: Read all the disclosures.

RETIREMENT A JOURNEY MADE SIMPLE.® TRANSAMERICA. MASTER RETIREMENT® POWER CHOICE FREEDOM RETIREMENT A JOURNEY MADE SIMPLE.® Before I go, I’d be happy to answer any questions you still have. If that concludes the questions, I’d like to thank you for taking the time to attend this seminar today. Transamerica Retirement Services (“Transamerica”), a marketing unit of Transamerica Financial Life Insurance Company (“TFLIC”), 4 Manhattanville Road, Purchase, New York 10577, and Transamerica Life Insurance Company (“TLIC”), 4333 Edgewood Road NE, Cedar Rapids, Iowa 52499, and other TFLIC and TLIC affiliates, specializes in the promotion of retirement plan products and services. TFLIC is not authorized and does not do business in the following jurisdictions: Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. TLIC is not authorized in New York and does not do business in New York. © 2009 Transamerica Corporation. All rights reserved. TRS 3413ECON-0109 FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY