Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources TJHSST Computer Systems Tech Lab 2008-2009 Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources Joshua Yoon
Abstract Recently over the past decades, numerous disasters such as the earthquakes and tsunamis have struck all over the world So this project will model the effects of these disasters on a human population be able to extrapolate the effects of future disasters on a nearby human population using a System Dynamics approach
Background System Dynamics an approach to understanding the behavior of complex systems over time deals with internal feedback loops and time delays System Dynamics vs. Agent-based Modeling System Dynamics is relationship based (between variables) whereas agent-based is random interactions between individuals of a population
Background cont. Programming Languages Current System Dynamics modeler used is "Stella" Arguments are already given with the program NetLogo Arguments are not given, so separate variables and the relationships between them must be created manually Uses of System Dynamics System Dynamics can be used in many different ways, but mainly to simulate efficiency Train System Efficiency Policy on flood prevention
Methodology/Procedure Create a human population that behaves like a human population (logistical growth) Implement a resource class, which inhibits unlimited growth of the population (carrying capacity) Implement disasters so that human population drops and recovers over time (recovery curve) Compare simulation test results with results from actual disasters
The Complete Web
Looking into the Web... Disaster Class: Disaster death rates Disaster check Death rate due to disasters
Looking into the Web... Human Class: Birth rate & Influx of New People The combined death rate (not disaster related + disaster related) Growth during no disaster vs. post-disaster
Looking into the Web... Resource Class: Growth during no disaster vs. post-disaster The season variable (oscillations) Natural death rate
Looking into the Web... Time Keepers: Keeps track of time before and after disaster Day corresponds to season, and timeafterdisaster keeps track of time elapsed after a disaster
Results & Conclusions Simulations are now running Resource class and human class work together and relationship is obvious Disasters work without glitches or bugs
Results & Conclusions cont. What needs to be done now... Get data collected after actual disasters and modify certain constants to make my simulation accurately model the situation Fix any glitches that might still exist in the program Add other variables in order to make the system more dynamic