Risk Prediction of Complex Diseases from Family History and Known Susceptibility Loci, with Applications for Cancer Screening  Hon-Cheong So, Johnny S.H. Kwan, Stacey S. Cherny, Pak C. Sham  The American Journal of Human Genetics  Volume 88, Issue 5, Pages 548-565 (May 2011) DOI: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2011.04.001 Copyright © 2011 The American Society of Human Genetics Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Plots of Predicted Risks of Breast Cancer in the General Population and in Individuals with a Family History of Disease and with One Affected First-Degree Relative Top: The probability density functions of predicted risks. Middle: The predictiveness curve (predicted risk plotted against the risk percentile). Bottom: the cumulative density functions of predicted risks. The horizontal line in the middle graph represents the average lifetime risk in the whole population. People with an affected first-degree relative are denoted by “Fam Hx +ve.” The American Journal of Human Genetics 2011 88, 548-565DOI: (10.1016/j.ajhg.2011.04.001) Copyright © 2011 The American Society of Human Genetics Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Ten-Year Risk of Breast Cancer at Different Risk Percentiles for the General Female Population The horizontal line represents the average 10-year risk of breast cancer for a 50-year-old woman. The American Journal of Human Genetics 2011 88, 548-565DOI: (10.1016/j.ajhg.2011.04.001) Copyright © 2011 The American Society of Human Genetics Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Ten-Year Risk of Breast Cancer at Different Risk Percentiles for Women with One Affected First-Degree Relative The horizontal line represents the average 10-year risk of breast cancer for a 50-year-old woman. The American Journal of Human Genetics 2011 88, 548-565DOI: (10.1016/j.ajhg.2011.04.001) Copyright © 2011 The American Society of Human Genetics Terms and Conditions