Case Study: Evaluation of PBL Depth in an Erroneous HRRR forecast for CI Keenan Eure.

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Presentation transcript:

Case Study: Evaluation of PBL Depth in an Erroneous HRRR forecast for CI Keenan Eure

Intro Accurate convective initiation (CI) forecasts remains a challenge CI requirements: Low-level moisture Instability Lift Convective-allowing models (CAMs) need sufficient spatial and temporal resolution Many of these processes ‘live’ in planetary boundary layer (PBL)

False alarm Missed CI

Importance of accurate PBL representation Strong coupling of near-surface and adjacent PBL diurnally Past studies highlight importance of PBL depth measurements Vertical wind shear Convective available potential energy (CAPE) Erroneous depth can throw off predictive and diagnostic quantities for severe weather Need sub hourly observations to be assimilated

WSR-88D Observations Continuously operating radars complete full scan in mins Top of PBL mixes with free troposphere Higher reflectivity values Bragg scattering Minimum in differential reflectivity (ZDR) ZDR values can give estimation of PBL depth Perturbations from turbulent mixing leads to higher reflectivity values Brag scattering occurs at top of PBL, giving low values of ZDR

Case Study of 05-18-2018 Strong storms predicted earlier in day Elevated convection likely Primary threats - large hail, damaging winds

HRRR and Radar Comparison Missed CI

Quasi-Vertical Profile Analysis of 05-18-2018 PBL

Quasi-Vertical Profile Analysis of 05-18-2018 PBL

Summary and Future Work Radar gives useful PBL depth and evolution data Encouraging for future DA Future Work Analysis of clear-air radial velocity and brightness temps Preliminary WRF simulations of case(s) Data assimilation of radar and satellite products HRRR configuration of WRF-ARW Inner and outer domain

Future Work Analysis of clear-air radial velocity, brightness temps Data assimilation of both radar and satellite products HRRR configuration of WRF-ARW Inner domain (12 km) and outer domain (3 km) Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based EnKF Every 30 minutes on outer domain (9 hrs out) Every 15 minutes on inner domain (2 hrs out)

Acknowledgements Dave Stensrud Fuqing Zhang Jerry Zhang Paul Mykolajtchuk Stan Benjamin (NOAA) Curtis Alexander (NOAA)