SAWS storm surge tool and IBF

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Presentation transcript:

SAWS storm surge tool and IBF Dr Christo Rautenbach Christo.Rautenbach@weathersa.co.za Development team: Mr. Marc de Vos, Ms. Tania Williams, Mr. Michael Barnes and Dr. Christo Rautenbach

What is storm surge?

Idai cyclone storm surge impact 2019/10/20

Tidal levels and vertical datums HAT Storm surge ML LAT

Global tidal levels

Tidal characteristics for South Africa One of the longest standing records of wave measurements around the South African coasts is situated close to Cape Town. The buoy location has moved once. From October 1978 to May 1993 it was situated at 18.18oE, -34.13oS in 170m water depth and with 72% data coverage. Since then it has been situated in 100m shallower water at 18.29oE, 34.2oS and with 92% data coverage. Fig. 2 shows the old location (labelled Slangkop) and the new location (labelled Cape Point). Only since 2000 has consistent directional wave spectra been available. C. Rautenbach, M. A. Barnes and M. de Vos (2019). Tidal characteristics for South Africa. Deep Sea Research I.

What else influences storm surge? Low atmospheric pressure

Model calibration and validation Journal of Operational Oceanography.

Ocean bathymetry and coastline shape

Operational protocol

www.weathersa.co.za/marine/

Coastal ocean users perceptions, usability and uptake

This is where you come in! We need public user group feed back This will be done via questioners (possibly online) Our three target groups will be: Recreational users (surfers, tourists, beach goers) Technical users (engineers, coastal managers) Ocean going users (skippers, ferry operators, port operators) These groupings are not finalised yet!! Please contact our Marine coordinator at: Tamaryn.Morris@weathersa.co.za

Incorporation of risk framework into operational protocol 2019/10/20

IBF Ground proof warnings and notifications Searchable database Institutional memory Speed up training Prediction confidence 2019/10/20

2019 research topics Students and interns 1 Post-Doc 6 PhD students 5 MSc students 1 intern 4 NRF research grants – together with partners We teach selected coastal and wave dynamics post-gradate courses Wave current interaction on the east coast AI as forecasting tool Operational wave run- up modelling Search and rescue probabilistic modelling Dense plume dispersion modelling 2019/10/20

Thank you for your attention Christo.Rautenbach@weathersa.co.za