Identifying risk factors: Challenges of separating signal from noise

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Presentation transcript:

Identifying risk factors: Challenges of separating signal from noise Jeevanantham Rajeswaran, PhD, Eugene H. Blackstone, MD The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery Volume 153, Issue 5, Pages 1136-1138 (May 2017) DOI: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2017.01.010 Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Example of automated variable selection by bootstrap aggregation (bagging), depicting the advantage of averaging. Fifteen variables labeled A through O are depicted as potential predictors of death after mitral valve surgery. In A, analyses of 5 bootstrap samples are shown. Tall bars indicate the variable was selected at P < .05, and gaps represent variables not selected. B and C show running averages as the bootstrap samples increased from 1 to 1000. Notice that no variable was selected 100% of the time, and all 15 were selected at one time or another. From Blackstone and colleagues.4 The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2017 153, 1136-1138DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2017.01.010) Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Random forest for survival partial dependency plot depicts the nonlinear relationship between albumin and 1-year predicted survival.10 Graph presents a risk-adjusted estimate of the effect of albumin on survival after aortic valve replacement. Circles and solid lines represent risk-adjusted estimates, and dashed lines indicate 68% confidence band. From Szeto and colleagues.11 The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2017 153, 1136-1138DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2017.01.010) Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Jeevanantham Rajeswaran, PhD, and Eugene H. Blackstone, MD The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2017 153, 1136-1138DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2017.01.010) Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions