Returns to Prison for Violent (and Non-Violent) Offenders Pamela E Oliver University of Wisconsin – Madison Marquette Conference on Alternatives to Revocation for Violent Offenders June 3, 2019
Return to Prison (or arrest) ≠ Recidivism Offender behavior + official behavior (surveillance + punishment) People commit crimes & don’t get caught (surveillance) Officials choose how to respond
University of Wisconsin–Madison Data National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) term records 2000-2016. 43 states have at least 5 years of records in this interval only 20 states have records for all years Snapshots use the last year for which a state had valid data (2016 in 38 cases, earlier for another 5) 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison Violent Offenses 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison national_offlong1viol_type.png 5/8/19 term2016_offlong1_counts.do 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
States Vary in Their Offender Mix 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison state_scatter_pct_anyviolent_SIalt.png 5/9/19 term2016_offense_counts.do uses offense_counts_offgroup_all.dta created by frequency count tables that were generated by term2016_allspells_basic.do on 5/8/19 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison term2016_offlong1_counts.do offlong_dist_states_inSI.png 5/8/19 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison term2016_offlong1_counts.do offlong_dist_states_admSI.png 5/8/19 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison term2016_offlong1_counts.do offlong_dist_statesPrelSI.png 5/8/19 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison First Release 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison First release sample NCRP term records First record in NCRP, ends with a release from prison in 2000- 2016 Exclude: death, escape, other Types of release Unconditional To supervision (parole or its equivalent) 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison Outcome Did that person show up again in the merged term records created by Abt Associates? No record #2 = survival/success Other reasons for no record #2 Abt failure to match records Deported Died Incarcerated in another state If in the records a new violent crime in the record definition of violent recidivism 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
Certainty of new crime information for returned violent offenders percent consistent no new crime 21 consistent new crime 48 inconsistent 20 uncertain 11 TOTAL 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
Combining Types of Readmissions (Violent Offenders) New violent crime New other crime No new crime Release Type Unc. Sup. Admit Type Commitment Violent Other Ambig. Prob. + new Prob only Parole + new Parole only None Release type: Unc= unconditional, Sup = to supervision. Ambiguous: there may be a new crime or not 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
Variations by offense, gender & race, state 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison These are the four groups with lots of state prisoners. There are more Asians than Native Americans in the population, but not in the prisons. 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison Data Summary Low rate of new violent crimes “ambiguous” looks more like no crime New offenses are more often nonviolent than violent Supervised release high rate of re-incarceration with no new offense. Relatively low variation by offender characteristics Large between-state variation in returns to prison ?? Data coding?? (Some look like variations in data coding) Policy differences 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison Implications Why imprison? Vengeance or moral order Prevent future crimes Would those imprisoned have offended again if not imprisoned? Don’t be so quick to preemptively re-incarcerate people Preventing re-offending depends on crime type “Causes” of robbery are probably a desire for money, different from assaults, different from sex offenses. Don’t be naïve about “recidivism” data. It always measures BOTH offender behavior AND official behavior. 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison
Thank You Pamela Oliver pamela.oliver@wisc.edu @PamOliver1180 https:// www.ssc.wisc.edu/~oliver https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/soc/racepoliticsjustice/ 9/1/2019 University of Wisconsin–Madison