Independent Inquiry Farming 1.5 A positive pathway for farming and food production Building consensus -Nourish Scotland

Climate Change- THE PRIORITY of our age? Sustainable use of resources ; biodiversity Reduction of Inequality Available and affordable food CLIMATE CHANGE -1.5

Independent Inquiry Farming 1.5 terms of reference FOCUS – CLIMATE CHANGE A POSITIVE PATHWAY FOR FARMING and FOOD PRODUCTION to Zero Carbon 2045 Holistic approach BIODIVERSITY LANDSCAPE COMMUNITIES RURAL ECONOMY TO BUILD CONSENSUS -Science, Economics, Environmental NGOs, Farming/Land Managers, Nourish

Affordable food and biodiversity in 2045? Available food- carbon efficiency Bio-diversity – carbon efficiency Balmford and Garnsworthy – study of low and high intensity systems Dr Cristina Banks-Leite- study Atlantic forest, Brazil -2017 Cereals, rice, dairy – Europe, Asia and America Minimum forest cover to maintain bio-diversity 30% High intensity/high yields lower carbon cost- increased output Min of Environment accept target for restoration and planning [12mha] Focus on smart systems Agri holdings – 30% wild land NOT BUSINESS as USUAL- high yield, bio and economic efficiency create space for wilderness Agri holdings – low carbon beef brand being developed Organic bodies believe low intensity approach can support biodiversity Brazil target 43% cut in Emissions 2030 but – 46% emissions due deforest 2017 U of Camb, Nottingham Uni, Imp College London

UK CCC Report 2019 – baseline of investigation SCOTLAND Zero carbon 2045 UK Zero carbon 2050, Wales 95% 2050 AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT – REDUCE EMMISSIONS AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS Increase efficiencies and intensity - RELEASE LAND LAND USE CHANGE - INCREASE SEQUESTRATION trees, wetlands, hedges, agroforestry ENERGY – SRC, SRF, Misc DIETARY CHANGE [red meat and dairy]- reduce livestock Dietary change freeing up land – FORESTRY & ENERGY CROPS DELIVER PARIS AGREEMENT

Rothamsted CE&H, Land use scenario 2050 for CCC Maintain output Business as Usual Multifunctional LU Technology push N efficiency [N20] No change 20% 30% Enteric emissions No change emissions up -5% -10% Ruminant number Rise -20% R Meat/dairy herd down -50% R meat/dairy herd down Diet change Existing trends -20% RM/dairy -50% RM/dairy synthetic meats Energy crops low M-245, SRC-227K SRF- 227K M-420, SRC-390K, SRF-390K Forestry –plant rates to 2100 31,000ha [Sco 15] 50,000ha [Sco 24] 32% tree cover Agri output +20% +20-45% Carbon impact +40% -21% -61%

RO Ireland climate action menu – extract [forestry 7000ha/yr], IFJ

Performance of N fertilizer ROI- protected urea Johnstown trial, IFJ

Independent Inquiry; Farming 1.5 Change – what producers need? FAIR CARBON ACCOUNTING STANDARDS SUITE OF LOW CARBON MANAGEMENT OPTIONS [case studies] CLEAR ACHIEVABLE TARGETS-[ joined up regulation/support/market ] OPEN DOOR FOR AGRICULTURAL BUSINESSES TO ADOPT DIVERSE CARBON STRATEGIES TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY [renew e, sequestration] SUPPORT FOR INVESTMENT IN LOW CARBON PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AND FARM WASTE MANAGEMENT SUPPORT FOR RESEARCH THAT DEVELOPS BIOLOGICAL EFFICIENCIES, CARBON CAPTURE and SEQUESTRATION A FUTURE ; A VIABLE MARKET FOR LOW CARBON FOODS – PROTECTION FROM CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTION [IMPORTS] ?

Independent Inquiry ; Farming 1.5 facilitated by Nourish Scotland Co Chair M Robinson CEO, RSGS Co Chair N Miller Co Sponsor NFU Scotland REPORT Target date – September 2020 THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST and TIME