Open access is possible! Staging the Transition from Subscriptions to Open Access European Commission Workshop: Alternative Open Access Publishing Models Brussels, 12 October 2015

Open access – current status 12 years after the Berlin Declaration: OA  13% of total publication output OA  4% of total publication budget OA Gold share in peer-reviewed scientific journals (analysis WoS) 10% 90% 2003 2014 2020 OA Share Year Swift & concerted initiative for a trans-formation to OA (budget-neutral, maintaining traditional partnerships with publishers, …) Inactivity & delayed transformation (increased costs & danger of aberration, collapse before construction/conversion …) We need a catalyst for the open access transformation

Overcoming the subscription system: Global level view Overcoming the subscription system: transformation of the subscription budget 7.6 bn EUR Spend Global subscription market 7.6 bn EUR p.a. Spend Potential for new services ≥ 3.6 bn Eur p.a. Global Open Access market ≤ 4 bn EUR p.a. Subscription market 10% Open Access market share: 13% article; 4% costs

Disrupting the subscription journal’s business model… … for the necessary large-scale transformation to open access http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.3 Published 28 April 2015

…together with data publication Data analyses by Margit Palzenberger / RIO, please cite: Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2

Enough money already in the system Global subscription spending 7.6 billion Euro Annually published articles (according to Web of Science) 1.5 million Current expense per article ~ 5,000 Euro

APC levels, current evidence German OpenAPC Initiative at https://github.com/OpenAPC/openapc-de

APC levels, current evidence “In total, 4,345,486 EUR for 3,515 articles were paid by the participating universities. Average fee is 1,236.30 EUR and the median 1,201 EUR.” German OpenAPC Initiative, September 2015 at https://github.com/OpenAPC/openapc-de

APC levels, current evidence SCOAP³ < 1,100 EUR APC evidence published by Wellcome Trust and Austrian Science Fund (FWF) Cap applied by German Research Foundation for APC funds = 2,000 EUR

Scenario of transformation based on current operating numbers per year Global view Subscription market today Global market volume 7.6 bn EUR 1.5 M research papers (WoS); up to ~ 2 M overall 5,000 EUR/ article WoS; 3,800 EUR/ article overall Global basis volume 4 bn EUR 2 M research papers 2,000 EUR/article After an OA transformation

Publication volume of selected European countries Total publication volume Articles and reviews in Web of Science Germany Great Britain France The dark part of the columns marks the share of articles with a corresponding author from this country (≤ 70%). 120 100 80 60 40 Number of articles p.a. (in K) 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year of the publication

Output volume in Great Britain 2013 calculation span 73,292 papers x 2,000 € = ~ 146.5m € 73,292 papers x 1,300 € = ~ 95.3m € 76% 75% 74% 73% 71% 70% 69% 68% 67% 66% Share of publications with a corresponding author from GB Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2

Output volume in the Netherlands 2013 calculation span 24,043 papers x 2,000 € = ~ 48.1m € 24,043 papers x 1,300 € = ~ 31.3m € 71% 70% 69% 67% 66% 64% 63% Share of publications with a corresponding author from the Netherlands Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2

Output volume in Germany 2013 calculation span 70,243 papers x 2,000 € = ~ 140.5m € 70,243 papers x 1,300 € = ~ 91.3m € 75% 74% 73% 72% 71% 70% 69% 68% Share of publications with a corresponding author from Germany Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country. http://dx.doi.org/10.17617/1.2

Close-up country view: share of major publishers in Germany 2013 Publications Library expenses Share of overall publications Share of publications with corresponding author Typical shares of journal expenses N = 103,000 journal publications Elsevier (14,000) Elsevier (21,000) Wiley (9,000) Elsevier no cost Wiley (13,000) Springer (10,000) Springer Wiley Springer (13,000)

Institutional level – Max Planck “formula” 10,000 research articles per year Total paper output According to Web of Science data, articles and article reviews Maximum of 6,000 (60%) APC relevant share (between 40-60% corresponding author papers) This pattern is persistent across the various OA publishers and stable over time Current average APC of ~ 1,300 EUR, Average APC level monitored based on 1,046 APC invoices with a total spend (including taxes) of some 1.3 EUR million [as of April 2015] 6,000 x average APC + safety margin ≤ €12 million Expected total expenditure These anticipated costs are very comfortably within our current spending levels The Max Planck Society as a heavily output-oriented research organization is able and committed to make the transformation.

The lesson is clear: A large-scale OA transformation seems to be possible without financial risks Subscriptions must be stopped and reinvested in open access business models

Detach and focus on the underlying business model of scientific journal publishing Functions and enabling elements of the publishing system POTENTIAL FUTURE SCENARIOS Alternative metrics Open reference and citation database CONCEPT IN PROGRESS AND UNDER (CONSTANT) DEBATES New tools and services Etc. ∞ ingenuity Brand value Usage and impact indicators CORE FUNCTIONS Career considerations Certification Dissemination Quality indicators Archival record (?) Research evaluation Registration Underlying business model of the publishing system Read-access cash flow Toll-access system Inherently restricted in use Publication service based cash flow Open access system Inherently open in use and re-use The cash flow can be changed without impacting the functions of publishing

Road to transition Start working on transition scenarios: Capture publication data on country and institutional levels Capture subscription spent data on country and institutional levels Link current costs with publications, work on offsetting scenarios on publisher levels, institutional levels, country levels Focus on STM market sector Work on price transparency: publish APC data

Road to transition Work on efficient infrastructure, help build up scalable processes for APC transactions

Subscription payments mus be stopped Global concerted action needed Staging the Open Access Transformation of Subscription Journals Invitation of selected research institutions from around the world (North America – Europe – Asia) Day 1 : Testing the ground whether or not the goal of a large-scale journal transformation is shared internationally and a readiness exists to act jointly Day 2: Developing and adopting a common action plan 8-9 December 2015

Thank you for your attention! Invitation of selected research institutions from around the world (North America – Europe – Asia) Day 1 : Testing the ground whether or not the goal of a large-scale journal transformation is shared internationally and a readiness exists to act jointly Day 2: Developing and adopting a common action plan Ralf Schimmer <schimmer@mpdl.mpg.de>