Overview: Religion & Changing Identity on the island of Ireland Dr Gladys Ganiel G.Ganiel@qub.ac.uk gladysganiel.com

Content of Presentation Decline & Persistence: Quantitative & Qualitative measures Contextual Factors Challenges to Belief in the Future

Religious Identification Republic of Ireland, 1961-2016 (Census)   1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 2006 2011 2016 Catholic 95 94 93 92 88 87 85 78 Church of Ireland (including Protestant) 4 3 Muslim 1 Other Christian -- Presbyterian <.5 0.6 Orthodox Methodist Other stated religions No religion 2 7 10 (9.8) Not stated 3 (2.5)

Religious Identification Northern Ireland, 1968-2012   Catholic Church of Ireland Presbyterian Methodist Other Christian No religion 1968 (Loyalty survey) 41 22 28 5 4 <1 1978 (SAS) 32 23 30 6 3 1989 (SAS) 37 18 7 12 1998 (NILT) 39 16 9 2008 (NILT) 17 13 2011 (Census) 14 19 2018 (NILT) 15

Mass Attendance Republic of Ireland, 1972-2017 91% 1988 88% 1997 66% 2007 44% 2017 36%

Church Attendance Northern Ireland 1968-2017   Catholic Protestant 1968 (Weekly) 95% 45% 1998 (Hereafter monthly) 81% 52% 2008 68% 2012 54% 2018 47%

Other indicators of Decline Drop in Vocations Under 30s (more likely to identify as ‘no religion’; less likely to practice) Decreased social influence (referenda in Republic) Weakened relationship with political power

Religion as Shaper of Identity (T Inglis 2014) Inglis found that even among ‘orthodox’ Catholics, religion was compartmentalised in particular times and places, limiting its personal and social impact. Other sources of meaning, such as place and family, money and success, politics, sport, and love, usually trumped Catholicism. ‘One of the main findings of the study was how little not just the Catholic Church but religion in general was part of the cultural repertoires of the everyday lives of people … There were few indications that God was in their minds and hearts and on their lips.’

Religion as Shaper of Identity (J Todd 2018) Todd’s study confirms that Catholicism is no longer as important an aspect of Irish national identity in the Republic as it once was. But in Northern Ireland, Protestantism and Catholicism remain important aspects of British and Irish identities: Todd found the most significant north-south difference was in the relationship between religion and national identity, in that the nominal categories of Catholic and Protestant were used ‘differently by different subgroups in different parts of the island’. In the ROI, only one in five Catholic interviewees volunteered their religion unprompted, compared to two-thirds of the minority Protestants. In Northern Ireland, with a relatively even population balance of 53 per cent Protestant and 44 per cent Catholic at the time of interviews, just over half of all interviewees volunteered their religious identity.

‘The extent, of the most recent levels of decline [post 1998], signals the crossing of a new threshold, perhaps comparable to the projected melting of the polar ice caps.’ -- Máire Nic Ghiolla Phádraig, 2009

Post 1998 Factors? The impact of the end of the Troubles, both north and south Impact of clerical sexual abuse scandals in the Catholic Church

But Keep in Mind … European Average Church Attendance: 13% Don’t fall into the sociological (and ecclesial) trap of equating religious vitality with ‘institutional’ identification and practice …

Religious Persistence and Vitality? Papal visit survey (Ganiel 2018) found most Irish thought Francis did not do enough to address abuse during his visit; but found a ‘Francis Effect’ among a sizeable minority, especially among practising Catholics: 39% of practising Catholics and 15% of ‘other’ Catholics have a more favourable view of Church since Francis took office http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Gladys-Ganiel-Paper-on-Pope-Francis.pdf

Religious Persistence and Vitality? Republic and Northern Ireland remain among most religious parts of Europe (levels of identification, belief and practice) Practice of ‘Extra-Institutional’ Religion

Belief in the Future? Challenges Five Years to Save the Irish Church: Meaningful apology & reparation; synodal reforms; ‘millennials’, relationship to ‘cultural’ Catholicism Contribute to peacebuilding & dealing with the past in Northern Ireland Spaces of hospitality for immigrants, ‘other’ religions, island-wide A Dialogue of Hope: Deliberately seeking secular partnerships to address most pressing issues