by Sarah J. K. Frey, Adam S. Hadley, Sherri L

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Presentation transcript:

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests by Sarah J. K. Frey, Adam S. Hadley, Sherri L. Johnson, Mark Schulze, Julia A. Jones, and Matthew G. Betts Science Volume 2(4):e1501392 April 22, 2016 Copyright © 2016, The Authors

Fig. 1 The high biomass, tall canopies, and vertical structure of old-growth forests are associated with lower spring maximum temperatures than in mature plantations. The high biomass, tall canopies, and vertical structure of old-growth forests are associated with lower spring maximum temperatures than in mature plantations. Photos of old-growth (A) and mature plantation (B) forest stands at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) in Oregon, USA. [photo credit: Matthew Betts, Oregon State University]. Sarah J. K. Frey et al. Sci Adv 2016;2:e1501392 Copyright © 2016, The Authors

Fig. 2 Relative influence (RI) of variables describing elevation (ELV), microtopography (TOPO), and vegetation structure (VEG) for each temperature metric. Relative influence (RI) of variables describing elevation (ELV), microtopography (TOPO), and vegetation structure (VEG) for each temperature metric. RI values for 2012 (A) and 2013 (B) were derived from the number of times each variable was selected in the process of model building using boosted regression trees (BRTs). Overall, elevation had the strongest influence on air temperature patterns in the HJA, but microtopography and vegetation also exerted important effects, particularly for maximum temperature of the warmest month, variability measures, and cumulative degree days (CDD) in the winter-spring transition. Sarah J. K. Frey et al. Sci Adv 2016;2:e1501392 Copyright © 2016, The Authors

Fig. 3 Spatially predicted maps of minimum temperature of the coldest month and maximum temperature of the warmest month (in degrees Celsius) based on BRT models. Spatially predicted maps of minimum temperature of the coldest month and maximum temperature of the warmest month (in degrees Celsius) based on BRT models. Minimum temperatures (A) were primarily influenced by elevation (B), but maximum temperatures (C) were primarily a function of vegetation and microtopography (D). Maps of the elevational gradient (B; in meters) and canopy height (D; in meters) based on LiDAR from 2008 at the HJA. Black dots show the 183 temperature sampling locations. The location of the HJA in the western United States is shown in (A). Sarah J. K. Frey et al. Sci Adv 2016;2:e1501392 Copyright © 2016, The Authors

Fig. 4 Differences in microclimate conditions across a gradient in forest structure. Differences in microclimate conditions across a gradient in forest structure. (A) Principal components analysis (PCA) showing how vegetation structure metrics differ between mature/old-growth forest sites and plantations. The ellipses represent 68% of the data assuming a normal distribution in each category (plantation and mature/old growth). (B) Three-dimensional LiDAR-generated images of plantation forests [(i) side view; (ii) overhead view] and old-growth forests [(iii) side view; (iv) overhead view] at the Andrews Forest. (C and D) Results from generalized linear mixed models show the modeled relationship between forest structure [PC1, the first component of a PCA on forest structure variables (A)] and the residuals from an elevation-only model of mean monthly maximum during April to June (C) and mean monthly minimum during April to June (D) after accounting for the effects of elevation. Closed circles represent 2012 and open circles represent 2013. Maximum monthly temperatures (C) decreased by 2.5°C (95% confidence interval, 1.7° to 3.2°C) and observed minimum temperatures (D) increased by 0.7°C (0.3° to 1.1°C) across the observed structure gradient from plantation to old-growth forest. Sarah J. K. Frey et al. Sci Adv 2016;2:e1501392 Copyright © 2016, The Authors