Figure 3: Possible effects of seasonality on a novel influenza strain.

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Figure 3: Possible effects of seasonality on a novel influenza strain. Figure 3: Possible effects of seasonality on a novel influenza strain. Panels show simulated epidemic curves when the basic reproductive number (R0) for influenza oscillates from 1.4 in winter to just under 1 in summer (black curves). When an epidemic emerges in winter (top panel), it is associated with a monophasic increase in prevalence (red curve). However, springtime emergence (bottom panel) results in a biphasic epidemic (red curve), as happened in the 1918 influenza pandemic. Cumulative attack rates are represented by blue curves. Prevalence data are multiplied by 10 for comparability of scales. Pandemic Influenza Outbreak Research Modelling Team (Pan-InfORM) CMAJ 2009;181:171-173 ©2009 by Canadian Medical Association