Risk Risk is the product of How to reduce risk? Probability that something will go wrong And Severity of its consequences How to reduce risk? Reduce probability that something will go wrong Reduce severity of consequences

Technical Risk Management TRM TRM 4-step Methodology Risk Identification Risk Assessment Risk Mitigation Risk Monitoring

Risk Identification Risk Identification is best done as a group Identify the desired outcome Use brainstorming methods to identify risks Continue until no more risks are identified

Risk Assessment Risk Assessment What are the odds of the risk event occurring Rare Unlikely Possible Likely Frequent

Risk Assessment Risk Assessment What are the consequences of the risk event Catastrophic Severe Marginal (not severe but significant enough) Negligible In design projects, the consequences are usually in terms of time, budget, and product meeting PDS targets.

Risk Scoring Matrix Frequent Likely Possible Unlikely Rare Catastrophic E H M Severe L Marginal Negligible

Risk Assessment Levels of Risk Extreme – Do not accept level of risk High – Do not accept level of risk Medium – Mitigate if resources allow Low - Accept

Risk Mitigation Plan Reducing the probability of failure More knowledge  Less Risk More accurate assessment Analysis Simulation Experimentation Published studies, statistical data Design changes

Risk Mitigation Plan Reducing consequences of events More accurate assessment of consequences Analysis Simulation Experimentation Published studies Design Changes

Example Assessment: Mitigation OR Bolt failure for a fuel tank is initially a probable event and its consequences are catastrophic. Mitigation Detailed analysis shows it is extremely unlikely. Further investigation shows consequences are not as severe as initially perceived. OR Select higher strength or larger bolts Add features to contain damage in case of failure

Example Risk Magnets stuck to the disk may fly off Probability: High Consequences: Severe injury or death Risk Assessment: Extreme

Example Mitigation (Reducing odds of the event) More accurate assessment of forces and probability of magnets flying off at maximum 1000 rpm Conclusions: Very unlikely Design Changes Add screws or other retaining parts Use epoxy Add speed sensors and automatic cut off

Example Mitigation (Reducing consequences) More accurate assessment of consequences Remains catastrophic Reducing consequences of the event Add an enclosure Operate remotely