Waikato Carbon Forestry

Initiated as Regional Carbon Strategy Developed as Waikato Carbon Forestry Principles and Framework Regional initiative to capitalise on ETS and bring about land use change for environmental benefits Means to implement are now defined

Stage 1 – identification and promotion in priority areas Stage 2 – increased awareness across region Stage 3 – adding value for Waikato credits Incorporation into existing and new Council programmes Build alliances and synergies with other agencies and commercial sector

Financial Advisors Act constraint is identified Potential to bundle smaller areas is significant Good alignment with Council’s functions and vision Proactive coupling with government and other incentives provides real opportunity for integrated Waikato land use model. Stage 1 costs mostly incorporated into existing programmes.

Use of WISE Model Simulate land use change from Sheep, Beef and Deer (SBD) to “carbon forestry”. Assumption: Convert ~75,000ha on Class 6&7 by 2050: Green = SBD on Class 6&7 - unchanged Red = SBD on Class 6&7 - change from SBD to carbon farming Again if we assume there will be a net increase of forestry within the carbon farming area of approximately 65,000 ha by 2050 there could potentially be around 62,000 hectares less of Sheep, Beef and Deer farms in the Waikato Region by 2050 under the carbon farming scenario. If we compare the location of Sheep, Beef and Deer farms (SBD) as at 2050 under both scenarios we can see the difference. Green is where SBD occur under both scenarios, Red is where SBD occur only in the baseline scenario, blue is where SBD occur only under the carbon farming scenario. Effectively, the red areas highlight the locations where SBD are likely to be replaced by other land uses by 2050. Most of this replacement will be at the hands of new forestry development in the carbon farming area.

Where does the new “Carbon Forestry” go? Impacts on regional economy (2031): Net employment: 267 Added value (GRP): $39 Mill Environmental co-benefits: Reduced phosphate and nitrogen loads to waterways Less runoff (flooding) Enhanced biodiversity (SNA links) Reduced erosion (sedimentation) So where is the new forestry likely to go? If we assume 65,000 ha of forestry is planted within the carbon forestry area by 2050 then this map shows in green the locations where this new planting may occur. It is useful to note that WISE also indicates that the implementation of a carbon farming area also has positive implications for water quality in terms of phosphate and nitrogen discharges by 2050 (similar levels to today as opposed to levels up to ~20% worse in some locations under the baseline scenario by 2050).