Welfare State and Finances Stockholm Social Forum, 20 October 2017

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Presentation transcript:

Welfare State and Finances Stockholm Social Forum, 20 October 2017 Eskil Wadensjö Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University

Sweden: Background Ageing population as in other developed countries Fertility lower than needed to have a stable population in the long run without immigration People are living longer – many old old (EU conference next week on the situation of the old old) Problems for the financing of the welfare state if the share of the population being employed is declining 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

Fertility Higher than in most other European countries (1.9 in 2016) How to enhance fertility Day care organized by the municipalities Old age care organized by the municipalities Equality policy 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

How to increase the share of the population being employed and the number of hours worked Different Groups Young people Older people Women Migrants 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

The young people The problems: High NEET rate (the group not in employment, education or training) Many years of study (often combined with part-time work) before entering the labour market Measures More vocational education Incentives to shorten the time to exam (incentives) 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

Older people Pension system and related systems Increasing the mandatory retirement age (now 67) Defined contribution system Higher lowest age for taking out a pension (61 at present) More difficult to get an early/disability pension Work environment reforms Facilitating self-employment 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

Women High employment rates compared to in other countries but still lower than that for men Women more often than men work part-time Measures: care arranged by the public sector; changes of social customs 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

Migrants Sweden has been a country with net immigration every year since 1930 with the exception of one year (1971) Different forms of migration Labour migration Students Family-related migration (”marriage migration”) Refugees 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

Labour migration Increases the share of the population employed The Nordic labour market (1954) The EU labour market (1994/95); expansion of EU 2004, 2007, 2013 Making labour migration from other countries easier (from December 2008) Short run/long run effects Circular migration/ return migration 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

Refugee migration A long history (some examples) WW2 (Nordic countries, Estonia) Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia Iran, Iraq Bosnia Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria Short run – long run effects – policy dependence Education in Swedish Validation Education Labour market policy 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

Taxation effects on work incentives Labour supply effects (substitution effects; income effects) The shadow economy (tax avoidance ) Do-it-your-self instead of market work Danish experiences 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

Conclusion A welfare state with some problems regarding financing in the long run but are measures available making it possible to solve the problems 20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö

20/10 2017 /Eskil Wadensjö