Frameworks for considering longer-term options

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Presentation transcript:

Frameworks for considering longer-term options Presentation to PEA James Mellsop Director 4 December 2012

Integration of gas transmission and energy Increasing integration Vector/Maui - Independent of energy trading STTM - Energy trading can override transmission contracts - Hub pricing Victoria - Energy trading determines pipeline carriage - Nodal pricing

Gas network complexity At simplistic level, we can think of gas network “complexity” along two dimensions Physical/network complexity Number of injection/withdrawal points The degree of “mesh”, not necessarily the number of “pipelines” Supply/demand dynamics Does the value of injecting/withdrawing at different points vary over time? However, complexity is not a “binding factor” when there is no congestion

Vector, Maui and Victoria Annual withdrawals 120PJ 113.6PJ 230PJ Injection points 8 6 9 Withdrawal points >130 18 >120 Length 2,287km 307km ~2,000km Major pipelines 1 5

Complexity compass Physical/Network Supply/Demand More complex Victoria (?) Supply/Demand Vector (?) Maui (?) Less complex

Capacity regime versus complexity Contract carriage Common carriage Market carriage Less complex More complex

Name James Mellsop NERA—Auckland +64 9 928 3290 James.Mellsop@nera.com Contact Us Name James Mellsop NERA—Auckland +64 9 928 3290 James.Mellsop@nera.com © Copyright 2012 NERA Economic Consulting Limited All rights reserved.