Uniting Business for Good Florida’s Changing Economic, Demographic & Political Landscape and Why Business Matters

Uniting Business For Good Leadership (Elections) Solutions (Research) Actions (Lobbying & Grassroots)

“Florida is changing. Our ECONOMICS, our demographics and our politics are all changing and these changes are both opportunities and challenges.” – Mark Wilson “Our mission is to lead Florida to a new and sustainable economy.”

Florida At A Glance www.TheFloridaScorecard.org Florida’s Economy $1 Trillion GDP (17th) 21.5 Million Residents 3rd / 26M By 2030 / More Than 900/Day 126.1 Million Visitors In 2018 (+50M by 2030) Florida Creates 1 Out Of Every 13 New U.S. Jobs 289,700 Jobs Looking for People. 357,000 People Looking for Jobs. www.TheFloridaScorecard.org

Job Creation April 2018 – April 2019 Top Counties for Jobs U.S. Growth Rate 1.8% Florida Growth Rate 2.4% Top Counties for Jobs 1. Miami-Dade 41,337 2. Orange 15,080 3. Palm Beach 8,918 4. Lee 7,308 5. Broward 6,381 Brevard 5,881 Seminole 4,889 Osceola 3,687 Polk 3,197 Lake 3,079 Top Counties for Job Growth Glades 3.1% Miami-Dade 3.1% Putnam 2.3% Brevard 2.2% Lee 2.2% Osceola 2.2% Martin 2.1% Orange 2.1% Lake 2.1% Flagler 2.1% 13 Florida counties lost jobs over the past year Data Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

Florida Industry Diversification by MSA #1 Most Diverse – Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island MSA #2 Most Diverse – Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA #3 Most Diverse – Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA #4 Most Diverse – Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA #5 Most Diverse – Cape Coral-Ft. Myers MSA #6 Most Diverse – Jacksonville MSA Data Source: Florida Gulf Coast University, Regional Economic Research Institute. Q3 2018 data.

Job Creation 2007 to Q3 2018 U.S. Growth Rate: 10.1% Florida Growth Rate: 11.2% Citrus County Growth Rate: -3.0% The Other 49 States – 1,274 counties lost jobs during this period. That is 41.6% of counties outside of Florida. Florida – 18 counties lost jobs during this period. That is 26.8% of Florida’s counties. 6,713 18 Counties – was 26 counties in 2017. In 2017 more than half of U.S. counties hadn’t recovered all their jobs.

Industry Jobs – April 2018 thru April 2019 Percent Growth Education & Health Services 46,800 3.6% Professional & Business Services 42,700 3.1% Leisure & Hospitality 32,000 2.6% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 24,600 1.4% Construction 22,600 4.2% Financial Activities 18,800 3.3% Manufacturing 10,300 2.8%

Innovation and Economic Development Manufacturing: Florida 2.8x U.S. Rate Florida - current Florida - 2018

“Florida is changing. Our economics our DEMOGRAPHICS and our politics are all changing and these changes are both opportunities and challenges.” – Mark Wilson “Our mission is to lead Florida to a new and sustainable economy.”

Florida’s Next 4.5 Million People Top 10 Growth in People Miami-Dade 639,060 Orange 451,990 Hillsborough 412,926 Broward 329,843 Palm Beach 279,976 Duval 225,250 Lee 212,763 Osceola 178,394 Polk 171,439 Pasco 129,769 Top 10 Growth in Percent Sumter 51.8% Osceola 50.7% St. Johns 43.9% Walton 41.5% Lake 34.3% Nassau 34.0% Santa Rosa 33.8% Orange 33.5% Flagler 32.2% Liberty 31.6% The top 3 Counties get 33.4% of the Growth: Top 6: 52.0% Top 11: 70.3% Top 13: 75.5% Data Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) Population Studies Group, University of Florida

Growth to 2030 by Age Group Age Group 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 0-14 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Where Does Florida’s Growth Come From? Change in Population by Source, 2010-2017 (millions)

Florida’s 3rd Grade Reading Scores 91,066 3rd graders not reading at grade level 6,713 Top Counties Bottom Counties 1. St. Johns 78 1. Desoto 34 2. Nassau 75 2. Gadsden 37 3. Baker 73 3. Madison 40 4. Santa Rosa 71 4. Putnam 41 Sarasota 70 5. Marion 44 Monroe 70 6. Jefferson 45 Gilchrist 70 7. Hendry 47

Under-18 Poverty in Florida There are 901,772 kids living in Poverty in Florida Florida’s under-18 Poverty rate: 22.3% Top Number: Kids living in Poverty Bottom Number: Under-18 Poverty Rate Data Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Citrus County Under-18 Poverty by Zip Code There are 6,286 kids in Citrus County living in poverty Numbers Top: Zip Code Middle: number of kids living in poverty Bottom: Under-18 Poverty Rate Data Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

People in Poverty in Florida 3,070,972 people living in poverty, by zip code “If you eliminated poverty in just 20 of Florida’s 983 populated zip codes, you would eliminate 10 percent of poverty in Florida” Top Zip Codes Percent of Poverty 20 10% 48 20% 84 30% 127 40% 179 50%

“Florida is changing. Our economics, our demographics and our POLITICS are all changing and these changes are both opportunities and challenges.” – Mark Wilson

What Do You Think Motivates Business In Florida? February 2019 What’s Better? Socialism or Capitalism? Voters Under 40 Businesses Care About Employees Businesses Care Mostly About Profits

Florida’s Game Changers/Headwinds Term-limits creating Kings and Queens in Leadership – short term vs. long term. Florida has become a testing ground for national issues and Constitutional Amendments as turnout drivers Out-of-state billionaires with their own anti-business agendas, essentially creating their own political machinery to advance their agendas. State Republican and Democratic parties in states of disarray. National Politics – Are President Trump and/or Congress a tailwind or headwind? Proliferation of “paid” and “fake” news creating uncertainty.

Florida’s Governor & Cabinet Governor Commissioner of Agriculture Attorney General Chief Financial Officer Ron DeSantis (R) Nikki Fried (D) Ashley Moody (R) Jimmy Patronis (R) DeSantis won by 32,463 votes DeSantis won 54 Counties Gillum won 13 Counties Fried won by 6,753 votes Caldwell won 54 Counties Fried won 13 Counties Moody won by 487,620 votes Moody won 59 Counties Shaw won 9 Counties Patronis won by 279,681 votes Patronis won 57 Counties Ring won 10 Counties

Senate President Bill Galvano House Speaker José Oliva Florida Legislature Balance of Power Senate – 23 R, 17 D 65% new since 2016 House – 73 R, 47 D 70% new since 2016 110 of 160 of the Legislature have less than 2 years experience Senate President Bill Galvano House Speaker José Oliva

Total Voter Registration By County (41R, 26D) Republican= 4,718,813 Democrat= 4,965,139 NPA/Other= 3,713,011 13,397,063

By County Republican Democrat NPA/Other APRIL NEW VOTERS Pull up Florida counties map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Florida_counties.jpg Go to https://mysterybridge.azurewebsites.net > statistics > New Voters By County > change Month to current month you are looking for > click show percentages. Whichever party has the highest percentage of new voters, that is the color of the county on this slide. You may find it easier to go through the county's from left to right if you are looking at Florida.

Florida the most important battleground state Elections are so expensive because 3 separate elections (Early, By Mail & Election Day) $22 per vote more than $150 million spent on Gov race Show vote conversion from 2014

Florida Chamber’s Latest Statewide Poll with Regional Insights

Changing Voter Attitudes Statewide 54:25 Jacksonville 62:22 Gainesville 46:38 Tallahassee 50:31 Panama City/Pensacola 55:25 Orlando/Daytona 53:22 Tampa/St. Pete 56:24 Ft. Myers/Naples 61:25 Broward/Miami 52:27 Palm Beach 48:28 Statewide 54:25 Men 59:24 Women 50:26 Republicans 77:9 Democrats 34:43 Others 48:21 White 59:22 African-American 27:48 Hispanic 61:18

Top Voter Concerns by Media Market EDUCATION JOBS ENVIRONMENT OTHER Statewide 13 11 Healthcare 10% Immigration 8% Gun Issues 5% Jacksonville 22 9 Healthcare 11% Gainesville 15 8 Healthcare 15% Tallahassee 25 6 Crime/Drugs 13% Panama City/Pensacola 16 18 5 Immigration 18% Orlando/Daytona Tampa/St. Pete 10 12 Healthcare 12% Ft. Myers/Naples 17 Broward/Miami Healthcare 9% Palm Beach 14 EDUCATION JOBS ENVIRONMENT OTHER Statewide 13 11 Healthcare 10% Immigration 8% Gun Issues 5% Men 9 12 Healthcare 8% Women 17 Healthcare 11% Rep 6 Immigration 13% Dem 16 Healthcare 13% Others White 10 15 Immigration 10% Black 14 1 Healthcare 19% Hispanic 19 Immigration 9%

Carolyn Gosselin Senior Vice President cgosselin@flchamber.com 850.521.1287