Demographic Transition AOHS Global Health Unit 1, Lesson 4 Demographic Transition Copyright © 2012–2016 NAF. All rights reserved.

Demography is the statistical study of human populations Demography uses statistics about: Birth Rate Death Rate Population Size Population Density What other statistics do you think professionals who study demography work with?

Demographic transition tracks how the population of a country changes over time Stages of Demographic Transition In Stage 1, what might cause the mortality rate to decrease?

Demographic Transition Stage 1: Population is Stable At first, birth and death rates are both high. "DTM Pyramids" by Dtm_pyramids.png: User:SuzanneKnderivative work: NikNaks93 (talk) - Dtm_pyramids.png. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:DTM_Pyramids.svg#/media/File:DTM_Pyramids.svg

Demographic Transition Stage 2: Mortality Rates Decrease The country’s economy develops. Hygiene and nutrition improve. Infectious disease decreases. "DTM Pyramids" by Dtm_pyramids.png: User:SuzanneKnderivative work: NikNaks93 (talk) - Dtm_pyramids.png. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:DTM_Pyramids.svg#/media/File:DTM_Pyramids.svg

Demographic Transition Stage 3: Birth Rates Decrease Birth rates slow due to: Increases in wages and urbanization Increased value of education of both women and children Population growth beginning to level off

Demographic Transition Stage 4: Population Growth Levels Off Birth rates begin to decline. Births and deaths become more equal. The percentage of the population that is older increases.

A population pyramid can provide a visual for demographic transition Image from: www.Census.gov/population/international/data This graph is wide at the bottom and narrow at the top. What does that tell you about the population of this country?

This is a population pyramid for a country in Stage 1 The pyramid shows a country with a high birth rate. What does it show about the death rate?

This is a population pyramid for a country in Stage 2 If people in Ecuador begin to live longer, how will the shape of the graph change?

This is a population pyramid for a country in Stage 3 If Iceland’s birth rate declined further, how would that affect the shape of the graph?

This is a population pyramid for a country in Stage 4

Population pyramids can also be used to make predictions about future populations This pyramid predicts what Japan’s population will look like in 2050. Can you see any potential problems the country might face if its population age distribution looks like this?

The United States is still going through some demographic transition What changes do you see over the last 30 years? In the next 30 years?

Demographic transition can help us predict how a country’s health will change due to economic changes Stage 1: Population is fairly stable Stage 2: Decreasing mortality rate Stage 3: Decreasing birth rate Stage 4: Population growth levels off and may contract How do you think global health professionals use this theory or statistical model to help them in their work?