How Aura transformed air quality research with a look forward to TROPOMI and geostationary satellites Daniel Jacob.

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Presentation transcript:

How Aura transformed air quality research with a look forward to TROPOMI and geostationary satellites Daniel Jacob

I couldn’t say it better… 7 https://aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/feature-20160428.html

TES: first direct retrievals for global tropospheric ozone shows mid-latitude pollution belt and global influence from tropical fires, tests global models TES 500 hPa ozone (2006) TES 500 hPa ozone (2006) GEOS-Chem model (TES AK) GEOS-Chem model (TES AKs) Zhang et al., 2010

Increasing Chinese influence on tropospheric ozone seen by TES Ozone-CO relationship offshore of E Asia 2005-2011 ozone trend over China TES ozone (ppb) Models Ozone, ppb 2005 2011 90 40 TES GEOS-Chem Ozone, ppb July 2005 CO, ppb Zhang et al. [2006], Verstraeten et al. [2014]

Reversal of Chinese emission trends observed by OMI 70% decrease over 2013-2017 (Clean Air Action) [Wang et al., 2018] NO2 Reversal in 2012, consistent with MEIC NOx emission inventory [Viral Shah, this afternoon] HCHO Mean of satellite products Yangtze River Delta Formaldehyde (HCHO) is proxy for VOC emissions: steady increase, no reversal [Lu Shen, tomorrow morning] 2005 2010 2015

Using OMI HCHO/NO2 ratios to diagnose ozone production regime Ozone production can be limited by either NOx or VOCs 2005-2013 OMI data NO2 HCHO/NO2 <1 <2 >2 Ozone production in urban areas tends to be VOC-limited and VOC emissions have not been decreasing. HCHO Jin and Holloway [2015]

2005-2011 decrease of US NOx emissions demonstrated by OMI observations OMI NO2, summer 2005 Russell et al. [2012]

2005-2011 decrease of US NOx emissions demonstrated by OMI observations OMI NO2, summer 2011 OMI NO2, summer 2005 30% decrease in tropospheric NO2 from 2005 to 2011, consistent with EPA-reported NOx emission trends Russell et al. [2012]

but OMI tropospheric NO2 column observations suggest otherwise! US NOx emissions have continued to decrease since 2011 according to EPA… but OMI tropospheric NO2 column observations suggest otherwise! Mobile sources Industry NOx emissions, Mt a-1 EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI): 53% sustained decrease of NOx emissions over 2005-2017 EPA, 2018 OMI NO2 columns over CONUS, 2005-2016: flat after 2011 Jiang et al., 2018 % change relative to 2009 What’s going on? Stay tuned for Rachel Silvern, this afternoon

Formaldehyde over US demonstrates abundance of biogenic VOCs… …and a significant cancer risk Annual mean OMI-derived surface formaldehyde, 2005-2016 Circles: EPA data 6000-12000 people in US to develop cancer over their lifetimes from HCHO exposure Zhu et al., 2017

New air pollution frontier: India OMI reveals rapid growth in SO2 emissions from coal use Lu et al., 2013

TROPOMI instrument launched in October 2017: Global daily mapping of NO2, formaldehyde, ozone, SO2, CO, methane for 3.5x7 km2 nadir pixels January-February 2017 July-August 2018 Yuzhong Zhang, Harvard

TROPOMI instrument launched in October 2017: Global daily mapping of NO2, formaldehyde, ozone, SO2, CO, methane for 3.5x7 km2 or 7x7 km2 nadir pixels January-February 2019 Yuzhong Zhang, Harvard

Geostationary constellation for air quality (2020-2022 launches) TEMPO (hourly) Sentinel-4 GEMS KARI GEMS: Feb-Mar 2020 launch 300-500 nm spectral range 3.5x8 km2 pixels NASA TEMPO: 2022 launch 290-490 + 540-740 nm (for boundary layer ozone and SIF) 2x5 km2 pixels ESA Sentinel-4: 2021 launch 315-500 + 750-775 nm 8x8 km2 pixels

OMI observed post-2012 reversal of NOx emission trend in China Governmental Clean Air Action initiated strong emission controls starting in 2013 Confirms trends in MEIC bottom-up Chinese inventory Steeper OMI NO2 trends in winter can be attributed to chemical feedbacks [presentation by Viral Shah this afternoon] Shah et al., 2019

OMI observes dramatic turnaround of Chinese SO2 emissions Mean OMI SO2 over China, 2006-2017 OMI trend over Beijing region, 2006-2017 70% decrease of SO2 emissions over 2013-2017 period of Clean Air Action Wang et al. [2018]