Development and pre-operational testing of a European Flood Alert System (EFAS) Ad de Roo EC, DG Joint Research Centre, Ispra (I)

LISFLOOD system Meteo data River basin management River basin ECMWF DWD DMI… River basin management River basin management LISFLOOD JRC European Data Soil, Surface, river catchment system, … Flood simulation & forecasting Member States data River dimensions, Alert levels

Why a European Flood Alert System? Early flood alert information to NWA (3+ days, max 10) to complement MS WA systems Catchment based (information from upstream catchment) Probabilistic approach using different weather forecasts and ensemble weather forecasts (EPS) Overview and monitoring of flood situation in Europe Potential backup for national systems EFAS progress Feasibility study EFFS (2000-2003) Elbe and Danube floods (2002) triggered pre-operational testing Development and testing of EFAS prototype (2003-2006) Transfer to operational service (MS, ECMWF, other, ???) (> 2006)

EFAS setup Input data European catchments > 2000 km2 on a 5 km grid Selected transnational catchments on a 1 km grid (Danube, Elbe, Meuse, Oder) LISFLOOD model hourly time step forecast run on arrival of meteo forecasts (00&12) Input data 2xDWD (GME+LM), 7 days 2xECMWF – Deterministic, 10 days 51x2 ECMWF EPS, 10 days observed meteo data Tests with COSMO-LEPS, 5 days

Technical set-up

European Flood Alert System: Example of a successful flood alert 30 July 2004 Rainfall forecasted CZ SK Flood problems forecasted A HU RU Black Sea Low flood risk Medium flood risk High flood risk Extreme flood risk Alert send on 30 July; Floods confirmed by Rumanians on 3-4 August Adriatic Sea BG Siret, Rumania

Distribution of information from the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)   Early Alert Information > 48h before a flood Flood Information during a crisis Bi-Monthly Bulletins Other reports (case studies, publ. …) Agreed Water Authorities (MoU) & ECMWF via ECMWF all Meteorological Services of their council. Any WA during a flood crisis Public

EFAS way forward Pre-operational testing until >2006 Feedback thru: ECWMF agreement (link to NMS’s) EFAS network with NWA (thru MoU) Elbe (IKSE) and Danube (ICPDR) commission, flood WG/ FAP Flood forecasting exchange circle (F-JRC) Continued R&D: JRC workprogramme IP PREVIEW, IP FLOODSITE, (EFFS) Establishing proper data exchange environment: European Parliament support thru DG ENV DG Enterprise IDA-BC programme After >2006, transfer to ??

Thank you ad.de-roo@jrc.it

THE LISFLOOD MODEL specifically developed to simulate floods in large European river basins spatially distributed and grid-based enabling the spatial variation of land use, soil properties and precipitation COMBINATION OF GRID-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL + 1D HYDRODYNAMIC CHANNEL FLOW ROUTING MODEL SPECIAL FEATURES (RESERVOIR OPERATIONS, LAKES, POLDERS) USING INITIAL CONDITIONS OBTAINED USING WATER BALANCE MODEL MODEL INPUT soil data, land use, topography and channel dimensions meteorological variables as rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and temperature MODEL OUTPUT the main output is river discharge any calculated variable can be reported as either maps, time series of maps or time series at selected point locations