Jenny Wahl Economics Department Carleton College Understanding and Teaching the Roots of the Civil War, part 2 EDS 112 Summer Institute 2009 Jenny Wahl Economics Department Carleton College

Number of Fugitive Slaves by State, 1850 and 1860 Source: Table Bb236-251, Historical Statistics, Millennial Edition.

Prices, Prime Male Slaves, Various Markets, 1830-1860 Source: U.B. Phillips, Life and Labor in the Old South, as estimated by Evans, The Economics of Negro Slavery, corrected by Hummel and Weingast (WP).

Effect of Escape Probability Upon Slave Price Probability of escape Price 0% 1200 0.01% 1199 0.10% 1187 1% 1080 5% 760 10% 540 Assumptions: 10% rate of return, constant probability of escape, discount by premium proportional to probability of loss

Percent of Permanent Fugitive Prime Males by State, 1850 and 1860

[I]t was necessary to offer a greater reward, and such as would probably be sufficient to induce men to consult their own interests, regardless of the public sentiment around them. . . . [N]ot only [are] fugitives . . . more frequently now than formerly returned to their owners, but [also] the difficulty of final escape has had some tendency to prevent others from attempting it. -- Elliott v. Gibson, 10 B. Mon. 438, 442 (Ky. 1850, referring to a statute requiring owners to pay $100 to captors of fugitive slaves.