Meeting of the Directors of Social Statistics 23-24 February 2016 Agenda Item 5.2 IESS - Potential breaks in time series

Background Breaks in time series is not a new issue for social surveys Need to tackle potential breaks linked to: The new IESS FR The new ICLS resolution And on-going modernisation of social surveys in several countries

Background Focus on breaks impacting main policy needs: EU2020 strategy (employment rate, tertiary educational attainment, early leavers from education & training, people at risk of poverty or social exclusion) Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) (unemployment, activity, long term unemployment rate, youth unemployment rates) Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEIs) (seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate) Only EU-LFS and EU-SILC are concerned

Sources for possible breaks EU-LFS EU-SILC Changes in definitions, methodology, process innovation, IT systems, new/change in sampling frames (census), increased use of adm data Changes in data collection modes New employment/unemployment definitions linked to ICLS Regionalisation of SILC Introduction of flow charts for employment and unemployment Implementation of new material deprivation indicators Introduction of infra-annual rotational pattern in some countries Change of frequency of some variables New precision requirements at NUTS2 level Reinforcement of the use of administrative data New deadlines for MUR 6 year rotational pattern Wave approach/new questions

Which sources to be tackled? Net effect of the different sources of breaks Priority for: Which sources to be tackled? Net effect of the different sources of breaks Priority for: EU-LFS EU-SILC Flow charts/model questionnaire 6 year rotational panel New employment/unemployment definitions (ICLS resolution) Regionalisation Severe material deprivation indicator Data collection modes

How to tackle the issue? Run in parallel old and new systems (variables/breakdowns for which the two sets are to be provided to be identified) Too costly Other methods: Randomised experiments Comparison with other sources Exploitation of longitudinal data

How to tackle the issue? Organise a workshop Inventory of actions planned at national/EU levels Communication strategy Move date of first implementation of IESS

Floor is open for discussion