Dengue forecasting Model Satellite-based System

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Presentation transcript:

Dengue forecasting Model Satellite-based System Sponsored by UK Space Agency Aedes mosquito Introducing an EO-driven Dengue Fever Forecasting System for Vietnam Barbara Hofmann, Felipe Colon, Alison Hopkin & the D-MOSS Team b.hofmann@hrwallingford.com NCEO 2019 Nottingham 02-05.09.2019

The Impact of Dengue Fever Last summer’s outbreak in Hanoi Source: Booth, 2016; Shepard et al, 2016

Dengue and climate Temperature Precipitation Humidity Wind speed Influences development times of the mosquito and the virus, Mosquito survival and Adult size Egg-laying (oviposition) cycle Precipitation Create/destroy breeding sites Humidity Mosquito survival Wind speed Movement of mosquito across space Dengue risk Rainfall Dengue risk Temperature

The human factor Proxi data sets Existing dengue cases Landcover Urban Periurban Rural Population Existing dengue cases

Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City Dengue Cases N S

Summary Preliminary results Next steps Operational since July 2019 Automatic AWS based system Shape but not always magnitude Regional discrepancies Next steps Glosea5 bias correction Skill assessment Dengue model improvements Website updates Test influence of different data sets Expansion to SE Asia

Project team

To help with Budget Setting (long term) Budget Distribution (medium term) Community Action (medium term) Immediate Response (short term) Site Specific Spraying Inspection Area Spraying Planning and policy changes