I’m Gonna Be: designing RESS for offshore wind 12 September 2019 Conall Bolger

An elite Irish team leveraging profound international experience An outstanding Irish team An elite Irish team leveraging profound international experience Conall Bolger, Head of Ireland Regulation & policy Business case development Routes to market, PPAs, capacity market Evie Doherty, Senior Consultant Energy policy analysis SEM and energy commodity trading Routes to market, PPAs James Goldsmith, Senior Consultant CRM auctions & DS3 procurement Energy asset business case assessment Corporate PPAs & energy procurement Ruth Young, Training Consultant Cross border arrangements & interconnection Electricity balancing DS3 system services 30+ wider group analysts 10+ wider group consultants 3 other global offices Award winning capabilities Analytics Review even increase volume of complex market data to extract the aspect you need to know

Our consulting experience spans a range of areas Consulting & projects Flexibility and balancing services Power market modelling Subsidy schemes and design Policy design and impacts EV integration Network charging Business planning/ modelling Investment due diligence Energy market intelligence Market entry: supply/ generation Licensing and rules Routes to market/ PPAs Our consulting experience spans a range of areas

Compelling track record

Offshore auction results £57.50 €45 $65-74 €46.60 $98.10

RESS Structure

Price fundamentals & RESS 06 SEM Volatility & pricing SEM Cannibalise price & PSO 01 05 Demand Auction budget Demand Supply chain scale & maturity 02 Network Constraints & delivery Network Access 04 03

Sources of uncertainty… sources of cost Cost elements crucial & uncertain Capex (per MW) Opex (per MW) 15.9% Construction 2.3% Development 43.8% Planned 2.3% Electrical array 25.4% Support structure 51.6% Turbine 56.2% Unplanned & other Sources of uncertainty… sources of cost Source: BVG

Capacity factors Sources: BVG, BEIS, OREC, GE

Load factors & auction volume 38% 41% 45% 52% Budget

Onshore & offshore works Indicative timeline Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y11 Y12 JAN FEB MAR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC APR JAN FEB MAR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC APR Development Pre-construction Construction Surveys Planning Procure/DD RESS FID Pre C. Onshore & offshore works Timelines 6 years (at least) Auction Auction early Preconditions in place (e.g. leasing, planning, grid rights) What is installed in interim?

c.bolger@cornwall-insight.ie +353 1 657 3423 +353 87 186 8646