The Federal R&D Budget Outlook Matt Hourihan August 19, 2019 For the SUNY Research Administrators Virtual Academy AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/rdprogram/rd-budget-and-policy-program

House R&D Highlights (1) NIH: +$2 billion, 4.7% above FY19 – highest funding since FY06 Most ICs received increases of ~5% Priorities: Precision medicine, Alzheimer’s New money: pediatric cancer data initiative, gun violence research, extramural R&D facilities grants DOD Science & Technology: -$677 million, 4.3% below FY19 Basic science (6.1): +0.5%, mostly for Army; DARPA, NDEP, Minerva also increased University Research Initiatives: +6.9%, +$27 million Priorities include AI, hypersonics, cyber; Defense Innovation Unit + National Security Innovation Network NSF: +$561 million, 6.9% above FY19 STEM ed programs supported

House R&D Highlights (2) DOE Office of Science: +$285 million, 4.3% increase Sizable increases for undergrad support, math & CS research, fusion research, among other areas +9.1% for Energy Frontier Research Centers with new awards planned in FY20 DOE Technology Programs: Increases of at least 11% for efficiency & renewables R&D; ARPA-E; grid security and reliability Nuclear, Fossil offices about flat USDA: ~11% increases for NIFA research and education programs +$50 million, 12% increase for Ag and Food Research Initiative (competitive grants) ~3% increases for ARS, NASS research; ~1% for ERS OIG: NIFA, ERS move to Kansas City broke law?

House R&D Highlights (3) NASA: +3.8%; Science Directorate +3.7% Increases for WFIRST (Astrophysics), Earth Science Education office including Space Grant spared from elimination Climate + Environment: EPA, NOAA, USGS have all dodged big cuts NOAA: plus-ups of ~9% or more for ocean, coastal, atmospheric, and climate research programs; Sea Grant saved USGS: largest increases for geological mapping, geospatial programs Other boosts: +$975 billion for CDC VA research up 7.8% NIST Lab programs up 3.7%

Next Steps Senate to begin issuing their own appropriations legislation in September… Recent science priorities have included NIH, energy science and technology, NSF, Defense research Scaling back House numbers? …followed by conference committees to negotiate final numbers with House. Issues: Border wall vs health spending Gun violence research line items But other research-relevant legislation (CJS, Interior, Energy) could see clearer sailing Fiscal year ends September 30: will need a Continuing Resolution for some/most/all agencies (Image source: Roll Call)

Beyond This Fall Next year, much more limited cap space: less than 1% increase for defense and nondefense Also, an election year… 2021: No more caps Though “how much to spend” will remain a political question subject to annual negotiation Budget resolution and debt ceiling return Fiscal future: aging population, increasing spending, and insufficient revenues means…growing deficits, increasing interest payments, and declining discretionary spending And THAT could all mean stagnating science funding for some years to come Or fiscal blowback (again)?

CBO disc decline

mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/rd For more info… mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/rd