Fig. 1. Frequency of reportedly pathogenic PRNP variants: >30 times higher in controls than expected on the basis of disease incidence. Frequency of reportedly.

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Fig. 1. Frequency of reportedly pathogenic PRNP variants: >30 times higher in controls than expected on the basis of disease incidence. Frequency of reportedly pathogenic PRNP variants: >30 times higher in controls than expected on the basis of disease incidence. (A and B) Reported prion disease incidence varies with the intensity of surveillance efforts (13), with an apparent upper bound of about two cases per million population per year (Materials and Methods). In our surveillance cohorts, 65% of cases underwent PRNP open reading frame sequencing, with 12% of all cases, or 18% of sequenced cases, having a rare variant (table S1), which is consistent with an oft-cited estimate that 15% of cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease are familial (43). Genetic prion diseases typically strike in midlife, with mean age of onset for different variants ranging from 28 to 77 (table S10) (22, 91); we accepted 80, a typical human life expectancy, as an upper bound for mean age of onset, and to be additionally conservative, we assumed that all individuals in the ExAC and 23andMe data sets were below any age of onset, even though both contain elderly individuals (fig. S1) (92). Thus, no more than ~29 people per million in the general population should harbor high-penetrance prion disease–causing variants; at most ~1.7 people in ExAC (A) and ~15 people in 23andMe would be expected to harbor such variants. Reportedly pathogenic variants were observed in 52 ExAC individuals (B) and on 141 alleles in the 23andMe database (table S5). Eric Vallabh Minikel et al., Sci Transl Med 2016;8:322ra9 Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science