Geoscience Human Resources Emerging Risks for Resources Christopher Keane American Geological Institute 28 March 2011

Four Challenges for a Sustainable Future Geoscience Workforce Carrying Capacity Meeting Future Demand Quality Maintaining Capacity Building

are we at Carrying Capacity? First Challenge are we at Carrying Capacity?

US Geoscience Enrollments 1955 - 2010 40 , 000 35,000 30 , 000 Undergraduate Students 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Graduate 5 , 000 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year

US Geoscience Degrees Awarded 1973-2010 8,000 7,000 6,000 D e g r s A w a d 5,000 Bachelor's 4,000 3,000 2,000 Master's 1,000 Doctorate 1 9 7 3 4 5 6 8 2 Year Source: AGI's Directory of Geoscience Departments

can we Meet Future Needs? Second Challenge can we Meet Future Needs?

Attrition, Replacement, and Growth in the next 10 years in the U.S. 125,000 geoscientists expected to retire 72,000 geoscience job growth by 2018 (BLS) 15,000 total new graduates over the next 10 years Or 45,000 total new graduates if you hire B.S. level Net deficit of over 150,000 by 2021

Crew Change is already hitting Federal Agencies 30% P e r c n t o f T a l G s i 2003 25% 2005 2007 20% 2010 15% 10% 5% 0% < 30 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65+ Age Group Data derived from the Office of Personnel Management fedscope database.

Options for Filling the Gap Decrease student attrition Geoscience major to career is 13% (half of other STEM fields) Import talent This isn’t Information Technology…. Expand domestic capacity Funding sources Quality of input

Geoscience Degree Completion Rates, 1973-2007 Do we need a draft Geoscience Degree Completion Rates, 1973-2007 Do we need a draft? but seriously… 45% Completion Rate of Geoscience Degrees 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Bachelor's Master's Ph.D. Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce Program, data derived from AGI's Directory of Geoscience Departments, and http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp

Where are geoscientists? United States: 250,000 geoscientists Russia: 80,000 geoscientist Europe: 60,000 geoscientists China: 40,000 geoscientists Canada: 20,000 geoscientists Africa: ~10,000 geoscientists South America: Unknown Middle East: Unknown Iraq: 5,000 India: Unknown

can we Import Talent?

Third Challenge Quality

New graduates aren’t ready for the workforce The leading complaint of employers New graduates aren’t ready for the workforce

Leading response of Academe We Educate, Not Train

Degree-Granting Diversity by Department Educate Yes, Workplace Aligned, No Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. MS MS MS BS BS BS 1980 1990 2000 Departments granting over 25% of all degrees Departments granting the second quartile of all degrees Departments granting the second half of all degrees 100 Departments Source: AGI/GeoRef

Geoscience is not Attracting the Best, or even the Average The pews are full, but are the lights on? Geoscience is not Attracting the Best, or even the Average

Mean Math SAT Scores of Selected Majors 580 All Test Takers 560 Biology Chemistry Physics 540 M e a n S A T c o r Geology, Earth or Space Science 520 518 518 516 515 515 512 514 508 500 480 460 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce Program, data derived from the College Board College - Bound Seniors, Total Group Report , 1996 - 2009

Mean Writing SAT Scores by Major 530 All Test Takers 520 Biology Chemistry 510 M e a n S A T c o r Physics 500 Geology, Earth, or Space Science 497 490 494 494 493 480 470 460 450 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce Program, data derived from the College Board College - Bound Seniors, Total Group Report , 2006 - 2009

Maintaining Capacity Building into the Future Fourth Challenge Maintaining Capacity Building into the Future

The Prospect of Capacity Building Collapse Loss of faculty in competency areas Existing Experienced Practitioners Lull the 15-year question Without alignment to tenure/promotion, no incentive What happens when capacity building collapses?

Geoscience Theses & Dissertation Topics 1950s vs 1980s Environmental/Hydro Economic Geology 1950-59 Geochemistry 1980-89 Geophysics Igneous/Metamorphic Stratigraphy/Paleo Sedimentary Geology Structure/Tectonics Other 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Number of Theses and Dissertations AGI 1991

Solid Earth Incentives for Faculty? Total Geoscience Research Funding by Sub - discipline P e r c n t o f T a l G s i R h F u d g 60% $4,000 T o t a l G e s c i n R r h F u d g ( M U S D ) $3,500 50% $3,000 Geoscience Research Funding (USD) 40% $2,500 Atmospheric sciences (%) 30% $2,000 $1,500 Geological sciences (%) 20% $1,000 Oceanography (%) 10% $500 Environmental Science (%) 0% $0 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

Beware of the South Africa Phenomena In Case of Emergency Beware of the South Africa Phenomena Viability of Substitution Retraining or engage Peter Smith’s “Middle Third” Measurable economic constraint