Nexus between Climate and index based LIVESTOCK insurance By Mr Zachary Atheru IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER Outline Overview of the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) Climate Monitoring, Forecasting & Applications Monitoring and Forecasting as a Basis for Index Based Insurance (IBI) ICPAC and Index Based Livestock Insurance Concluding Remarks IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER (ICPAC)

IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER Overview of the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) Established in 1988 as the Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) for Eastern Africa; On 13 April 2007, the Protocol establishing the Centre as a Specialized Institution of IGAD was signed and name changed to ICPAC; IGAD DRM Programme is hosted at ICPAC IGAD Food Security, Nutrition and Resilience Analysis Hub (IFRAH) is also hosted at ICPAC IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER (ICPAC)

Overview of the ICPAC...Cont‘d Cluster Node 1 ICPAC is a designated WMO Regional Climate Centre Receives HydroMet. station data from its member states and EO data & Products. Two High Performance computer clusters with 30 and 75 terra flops capacity for running climate models. Has 60 staff including a number of Scientists. Partnerships: IGAD-MS e.g Kenya &Sudan; RCMRD; ILRI; CIAT; FAO Cluster Node 2 Receiving Antenna Full e-station PC1: Receive data from EUMETCast PC2: Processing PC3: Visualization IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER (ICPAC)

Summit of 2011, Nairobi Historic turning point

Never again should drought = famine WHAT WAS AGREED IN THE 2011 SUMMIT Never again should drought = famine Pro-active: manage risk not emergency Link humanitarian & Development Holistic, multi-sectoral, long-term Aim: Resilience , sustainability; ASALs Work as a region: Coordinated by IGAD

The Heads of States Declared, inter alia: UNDERTAKE: 1. To Enhance the provision of timely and actionable Early Warning information to all actors by strengthening the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC); 13. Create and support a Multi-donor Trust Fund for drought and other disasters to be anchored in the IGAD Secretariat;

Climate MONITORING, forecasting & Applications Rainfall time series Rainfall forecast Temperature forecast Temperature Projections MAM 2019 SPI Onset forecast Cessation forecast IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER (ICPAC)

NATURAL RESOURCES DEGRADATION MONITORING Near Real-time Monitoring Satellite Data and Monitoring Platforms for Early Warning NDVI in Protected Area-Tsavo Kenya Eco-Climatic Monitoring-Sudan Dinder Ecological Monitoring is offered as a service to Wildlife and Protected Areas managers. Land cover change hotspot maps to determine ecological intactness and predict potential areas of human-wildlife conflict Monitoring Protected Areas Monitoring Forests (Biomass, Fires, Deforestation, Degradation etc..) * IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 9

KEY INDICATORS AND FEATURES OF THE RANGELAND DROUGHT ASSESSMENT Rainfall anomaly (SPI) and vegetation anomaly VCI are the two key indicators calculated for administrative units Thursday, November 14, 2019 INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT

Monitoring and Forecasting … Cont’d Seasonal Crop Conditions from field observations and satellite information Information blended with market data for key agricultural commodities & trade

IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER Monitoring and Forecasting … Cont’d Drought Floods IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER (ICPAC)

IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER Khartoum Action Plan for Development of Risk Transfer and Micro-Insurance in the IGAD Region The Khartoum Action Plan defines the road map to foster the dissemination of risk transfer and micro-insurance services in the region. It reflects the commitments made by IGAD Member States, the IGAD Secretariat, and private sector partners and establishes responsibilities for the implementation of the activities agreed in the action plan. One of the actions is to facilitate the development of tools that will support the activation of payments for climate and vegetation indexed models. IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER (ICPAC)

IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER CLIMATE Monitoring and Forecasting as a basis for index based insurance Continuous climate monitoring and forecasting coupled with availability of satellite image receiving stations and expertise in EO data processing provides a basis for operational index based calculations. The hybrid approach is recommended due to the trade-off between the short lead time with better precision and long lead time with reduced accuracy that monitoring and forecast based systems respectively provide. The seasonal and sub seasonal variability of indicators together with the dynamics in the bio-physical and socio-economic landscapes poses a challenge for index based decisions and hence the need for ground truthing. IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER (ICPAC)

ICPAC and index based LIVESTOCK insurance ICPAC offers to be a calculating body for the Livestock Index Based Insurance Programme in the region. The proposed calculation scheme is based on spatially transformed NDVI and Rainfall data at dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales and use of forage forecasting and predictive models; Based on rainfall forecasts, ICPAC calculates timely NDVI variables: cumulative dekadal, monthly and seasonal values for each pre-defined payment unit. The tool proposed is Excel based that tabulates ZcumNDVI values per predetermined insured unit; The tool includes a web-based visualization of the progress of a season with multiple indicators( NDVI, SPI, Temperatures) . IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER (ICPAC)

ICPAC and index based insurance…Cont’d 11/14/2019 ICPAC and index based insurance…Cont’d Calculations determine when the pay-outs could be made and how much should be paid (partial or full payment) in response to derived ZCumNDVI values.

IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER Concluding Remarks ICPAC considers risk transfer mechanisms including index based insurance as one effective means to promote community resilience to disaster risks in the region. ICPAC has near-real time EO data receiving, storage and processing capabilities for determination of season references useful for historical and current monitoring. ICPAC has the capacity to generate both monitoring and forecast based products which provide a basis to set thresholds for common indicators (RF, NDVI, SM, Temperature etc). ICPAC also is currently evaluating a rangeland forage model that provides better tipping points for pay-outs (being piloted in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia) IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTER (ICPAC)

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