New Challenges, Old Thinking: Indian Foreign Policy at the Crossroads Rajesh Rajagopalan Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

Rarely worked in the past, unlikely to work now PM Modi at the conclusion of his Shangri La Dialogue speech: “The world is at a crossroad” Cause countries face choice between cooperative & conflictual international order Typically, India’s dilemma is framed as a larger problem, not just India’s Rarely worked in the past, unlikely to work now Rather, it is India that faces choice: continue traditional approach that was barely satisfactory Seek a new path in its strategic policy to meet new challenges

Indian foreign policy very paradoxical TO UNDERSTAND CURRENT DILEMMA INDIA FACES, LOOK BRIEFLY AT INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY PARADOXES Indian foreign policy very paradoxical India has traditionally been very (irritatingly) moralistic in its foreign policy But it is also a country that has built nuclear weapons Non-aligned, but also aligned (briefly) with US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War A leader of the Third World, but no friends among its Third World neighbors Great supporter of multilateralism Except on issues that concern its national interest (Kashmir, nuclear weapons) A democracy, but has traditionally been more suspicious of other democracies Poor relations with the West, warm ties with the East/Soviet bloc, undemocratic third world dictators What explains this?

REGIONAL DOMINANCE & ITS CONSEQUENCES Basically, a large, secure state that could be indulgent on international affairs The dominant power in South Asia Roughly 70% of size, population, GDP etc. of the region Consequence: Fairly relaxed security environment No existential or even major external or internal threats Allowed New Delhi to pursue ‘moral’ foreign policy Aimed at diffused general interest than specifically Indian interests ‘One World’, Nuclear disarmament, NAM, G-77, multilateralism etc. Lackadaisical attitude towards nukes Emphasized ‘internal’ rather than ‘external’ balancing

CHALLENGES TO REGIONAL DOMINANCE There have been a couple of challenges to Indian regional hegemony Explains occasional Realist slant Because of extra-regional threats that India couldn’t handle China war (1962) Sino-Pak-US axis (1971) Opposition to external involvement in South Asia or even Indian Ocean Very different attitude among India’s neighborrs But these were both temporary China not strong enough to challenge India in South Asia Others not particularly interested

NEW CHALLENGE: CHINA’S RISE A fundamentally new circumstance Massive material disparity From rough parity in 1990, today China’s GDP 2.5 times that of India (PPP) In terms of US $, about five times (US $ 2.5 v. 12.2 trillion) Military budget is almost three times India’s Direct military threat on border, Indian Ocean Enhance Pakistan threat Two-front war threat Technological threat Outer space Advanced weapons

THE CHALLENGES China’s challenge to Indian regional dominance More comprehensive and capable than any previous challenge Will be enduring China much more interested in balancing India, unlike previous (US) Neighbors will be tempted to balance (Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan) Internal balancing no longer sufficient Relative capacity insufficient Traditional international partners (NAM, Russia etc.) no longer useful China more attractive to them Multilateralism of little use (China will have more support) UNSC Seat, NSG, SCO, AIIB Indian defense reforms Poor political direction Indian state capacity Short-term political imperatives

OLD THINKING/ATTITUDES CONTINUE Focus still on internal balancing Gradual but very slow change Partnerships as transactional or worse, free-rideable Foreign policy dominated still by Nonalignment/”strategic autonomy” Still suspicious of US/West/Australia etc. Hedging, at best Culture of dominance continues: India as a great power India as equal to China Exaggeration of India’s importance India’s rise creates false confidence Dismissiveness towards neighbors

WHICH PATH? Limited choices Appease China Balance China Has its benefits May be able to continue to dominate region But politically difficult Balance China Need to align more vigorously Hasten defense reform Enhance state capacity