The Relationship between School District Poverty & FAFSA Completion (2016 – 2018) Danielle Lowry University of Pittsburgh National Association of State Student Grant & Aid Programs October 2018

Goal of Report Improving equity in college access Low-income students are dependent on state and federal aid to make college affordable Reducing socioeconomic gaps in college access requires reducing gaps in FAFSA completion Examining district & state variation in FAFSA completion Identify and target for improvement high poverty districts with low FAFSA completion Identify districts and states completing FAFSA at high rate to study policies and programs that can be emulated

Report Summary Research process: Key findings: Link district FAFSA filing rates to district poverty rates to examine the relationship between filing and poverty Explore changes in FAFSA filing from 2016 to 2018 Key findings: On average, higher poverty districts do not complete the FAFSA at same rate as lower poverty counterparts FAFSA filing rates increased across the distribution of poverty from 2016 to 2017 and remained steady from 2017 to 2018 Gaps in filing between the wealthiest and the poorest districts did not change Louisiana saw the largest improvement in FAFSA completion from 2017 to 2018 -Earlier FAFSA, prior-prior year tax information -On average, for every 10 percentage point difference in the percent of children aged 5 to 17 living in poverty, the district FAFSA completion rate is 2.3 percentage points lower. This negative relationship has decreased by less than one percentage point from 2016 and 2017, which means we are seeing very little progress in decreasing FAFSA filing gaps between the nation’s poorest and wealthiest districts. -In Louisiana, the average FAFSA completion rate increased by 13 percentage points.

Data 2016 US Census Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) June 2016, 2017, and 2018 US Department of Education FAFSA filing rates, by district National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Common Core of Data 2016 enrollment rates Don’t want to dwell on technical details… -SAIPE is calculated annually using data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to determine income levels and poverty rates among school-aged children

School District Poverty Average of about 18%, ranges from min of 2 to high of 71% Most poverty concentrated in the South Percent

FAFSA Filing Rate TN LA Percent In 2018, average of 57%, min of 20 to high of 80 (could be lower or higher but these are the bounds that US D of E reports) Lower filing rates in higher poverty states, with the exception of Louisiana and Tennessee Percent LA

Change in Filing from 2016 to 2017 -earlier FAFSA, prior-prior year tax information -National increase of about 4 percentage points -Utah had increase of 10 percentage points, but start off with lower FAFSA completion (more room for improvement) -Among high poverty states, KY, LA, AL experienced substantial increases

Change in Filing from 2017 to 2018 -earlier FAFSA, prior-prior year tax information -National increase of less than one percentage point -Louisiana at 13, and Nevada at 8 percentage points -19 states saw no improvement or a decrease in district-level filing -The largest decrease of around 2-3 percentage points occurred in West Virginia and Wyoming, two states with FAFSA completion rates that are already below the national average.

Modelling relationship between FAFSA completion & poverty Other states with similar trends AL CT IA ID IN KS LA MA MD MEMI MO MS MT ND NH NJ NY OK OR PA SC SD TN VA VT WI WY Discuss regression briefly—modelling the relationship by state Find: negative relationship, no clear relationship, positive relationship, and curvature -most common trend observed -In these figures, each hollow circle corresponds to a single school district and the relative size of the circle corresponds to the number of students enrolled. The circles also represent the 2018 FAFSA completion rate for each district. The dashed blue line represents the relationship between poverty and FAFSA completion in 2016, while the dashed teal line represents this relationship in 2017. The relationship between district poverty and 2018 FAFSA completion is represented by the solid green line. -On average, for every 10 percentage point difference in the percent of children aged 5 to 17 living in poverty, the district FAFSA completion rate is 2.3 percentage points lower. Key for lines at the bottom

Modelling relationship between FAFSA completion & poverty Other states with similar trends AZ VA Discuss regression briefly—modelling the relationship by state Find: negative relationship, no clear relationship, positive relationship, and curvature

Modelling relationship between FAFSA completion & poverty Other states with similar trends CO FL IL NV TX UT WA WY Discuss regression briefly—modelling the relationship by state Find: negative relationship, no clear relationship, positive relationship (in 9 cases), and curvature Strongest in WY (but they also do not have high rates of poverty) CA and UT, but UT’s FAFSA completion rates are some of the lowest in the nation

Modelling relationship between FAFSA completion & poverty Other states with similar trends AK AR DE MN NC NE NM RI Discuss regression briefly—modelling the relationship by state Find: negative relationship, no clear relationship, positive relationship (in 9 cases), and curvature Low and high pov districts are similar Higher in highest and lowest income districts

FAFSA completion varies substantially across states On average, in the United States, for every 10 percentage point difference in the share of children 5 to 17 living in poverty, we estimate that the school district FAFSA completion rate is approximately 2.6 percentage points lower -sorted by highest poverty districts Light blue diamond: 10%, Navy square: 90%, green circle: median -Vertical separation shows gaps in filing -Squared states have highest FAFSA completion among the highest poverty school districts in the nation—RI has small amount of districts—even in TN, wealthier districts out perform low income districts Constant definitions for high and low income—levels of poverty rather than percentiles

FAFSA completion varies substantially across states CA, MN, UT, also have consistently higher FAFSA completion among high poverty than low poverty districts Narrow red bands

FAFSA completion varies substantially across states The negative relationship for some states is greater than the national average—almost one for one GA, IN, NJ, VT still doing well despite being “negative” –NJ and VT have higher than average median FAFSA completion

Gaps in filing between high and low poverty school districts Green circles are 2018 gaps, blue diamonds are 2017 gaps, sorted by 2018 gaps Dot above red line are gaps where wealthiest districts outperform lowest income districts -not much change between 2017 and 2018—overall, no decreases in gaps KEY—definition of poverty same across states

Gaps in filing between high and low poverty school districts Green circles are 2018 gaps, blue diamonds are 2017 gaps, sorted by 2018 gaps Dot above red line are gaps where wealthiest districts outperform lowest income districts -not much change between 2017 and 2018—overall, no decreases in gaps

What’s next? Increase FAFSA filing in states with low overall FAFSA completion What’s happening in LA? Decrease FAFSA filing gaps between high and low poverty districts What’s happening in states like MD or TN? Continue efforts to make FAFSA application easier to complete Mobile FAFSA Given all of this, where do we go next… what can we learn from districts , exceptions to rule in 2018 increase – what’s happening in LA?!

Thank you Danielle Lowry danielle.lowry@pitt.edu