CUNA Economic Update September 2019 Jordan van Rijn, PhD Senior Economist

CUNA Economic Update is sponsored by

Index of consumer sentiment Source: University of Michigan Another indicator that economists and journalists often point to is lowering consumer confidence: It’s true that consumer confidence has taken a hit in recent months with the trade war, government shutdown and volatility in the stock market. But in fact consumer confidence remains quite elevated and well-above its long-run average: At 98, it’s over 12 points higher than the long-run average of 86. It also just rose again last month after falling for a couple of months. So consumers are still pretty confident—but this is something that could change quickly if the political or economic situation changes drastically.

Subprime Mortgage Originations as % of Total Mortgages HMDA, 2004 - 2017

Auto Loan Rates at Banks vs. Credit Unions Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, 2000-2016

CU Auto Loan Member Benefits vs. Tax Exemption

$10.9 Billion If we add up all of these benefits to credit union members—including lower fees—the total is over $10 billion per year of direct benefits to credit union members. In addition, we estimate at least $4.0 billion in benefits to non-credit union members since bank interest rates also improve due to competition with credit unions. For example, in order to attract customers, they need to lower loan interest rates, or increase rates on savings. This leads to over $14 billion in benefits to consumers. Now if we compare that to the estimated amount generated by taxing credit unions, it’s over 8 times as large! *Versus a tax exemption that people estimate is worth $1.7b in annual tax revenue.

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