Scenario Planning Process RSENR University of Vermont “There is this totally absurd notion that knowledge proceeds in neat steps from known facts through logical deduction.” Edward de Bono August 6, 2019 Susan Stickley Stratus, Inc. Susan Stickley Stratus, Inc.

The Elements of Strategy Who We Are Success Formula: Distinctive Competencies Who We Want to Be Vision: Strategic Intent Where We Have to Work Scenarios: The Business Environment Kees van der Heijden Stratus, Inc. 2017

Defining Scenarios “Scenarios are stories about the ways that the world might turn out tomorrow… …that can help us recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our current environment” Peter Schwartz Stratus, Inc. 2017

Benefits of Scenario Planning Leads to robust decisions in the face of uncertainty; Allows for more flexibility in a changing world; Provides a means to imagine and plan for risks (risk mitigation); Encourages creativity and innovation; Allows for the creation of a common vision; Helps divergent views come into alignment. Stratus, Inc. 2017

Scenarios are Not Forecasts Planning for One Future Planning for A Range of Futures I wonder whether we want to promise “Planning for Any Future”. Wouldn’t it be better to say, “Planning for a Range of Futures”. Or “Several Futures”? Viewpoint: Multiple forces can affect future Viewpoint: Past largely determines future Source: Global Business Network

Strategic Focus Core Strategic Question that is the basis for scenario exploration. Developed from strategic themes that emerge through data gathering. Unique, Distinctive Capability Strategic Challenges and Opportunities Growth Sustainability … Visions of Success Relevancy filter for scenario content development Stratus, Inc. 2017

Scenarios employ “Outside-In” Thinking Vision Strategies Competencies High Org Influence Scenario thinking starts in the outer circle –the contextual environment that will shape your choices. STEM Advancements Innovation in Environmental Education Tech Enablers Higher Education University of Vermont Stakeholders (students, faculty, alumni…) RSENR & its Strategic Focus Some Org Influence THE TRANSACTONAL ENVIRONMENT Less or No Org Influence Social Technological Economic Environment Political CONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENT Stratus, Inc. 2017

Basic Work Flow Planning and Data Gathering (1+ month) Map out Strategic Planning Process Orient Ourselves: Data Gathering - Interviews, Survey and Analysis - Identify Key Strategic Themes and Critical Uncertainties - Frame Strategic Focus (question) Output: Strategic Context Summary Document, Strategic Focus Critical Uncertainties - Compiled and brought into the first workshop Scenario and Strategy Development (2+ months) Create the Scenarios - Scenario Development Workshop (Oct) 1 day workshop over 2, ½ days Write the Stories - Scenario Narrative Writing and Research Output: Scenario Narrative Package Explore the Scenarios - Strategic Implications Workshop (Dec) 1 ½ day workshop over 2, consecutive days Output: First Draft Strategic Plan Stratus, Inc. 2017

Basic Work Flow Finalize Strategic Plan (1+ months) (internally driven, collaboratively finalized) Flesh-Out Strategies - Session and additional task work Create scope/focus, measures to track progress) Finalize Strategic Plan (1st Quarter, 2020) Output: Strategic Plan Document Update Transition to Implementation Build Adaptive Capability (optional) Design Process and Implement within RSENR for Ongoing Strategic Vigilance Monitoring Process of External Environment Codified Process for Strategic Dialogue Sessions Output: Process to maintain a living, adaptive Strategic Plan Stratus, Inc. 2017

Roles and Responsibilities RSENR Leadership Creator and Owner of Strategy Content Preparatory work prior to workshops (up to 2 hours) Participate in Strategic Planning Workshops Lead Implementation of the Strategic Plan Core Team (3 to 5 individuals and Susan) Overseer of the Scenario Planning Process Focused on work to be done between sessions (primary writers/editors of scenarios and Strategic Plan content) Glue of overall process RECOMMENDATION: clarify individual roles and responsibilities Stratus, Inc. 2017

What does success look like at the end of this process? Stratus, Inc. 2017