Toward a Modern Presidency Fred Greenstein

The Modern Presidency Understanding the Modern Presidency Two premises inform much of what we think about the modern presidency: 1) Presidents have a direct influence on policy 2) Impact of president depends on: a. personal leadership b. skills and political context

The Modern Presidency Public Perception of Modern Presidency “Neither premise is…surprising to most Americans” Examples: Modern Presidential Power FDR: Social security Act JFK: Cuban Missile Crisis LBJ: Medicare

The Modern Presidency Studying the Presidency If the presidential performance depends on personal leadership skills should presidents be studied on an individual basis?

The Modern Presidency Changing Presidential Role Presidents have begun to exert considerable influence over the policy process, but their power is not limitless. Presidential Failure Indeed despite their power, it is not uncommon for president’s policy initiatives to fail. LBJ: Vietnam Clinton: Health Care Reform Bush: Social Security Reform Trump: Repeal of Obamacare

The Modern Presidency Explaining Changing Presidential Role Three factors have contributed to the presidential predicament: 1) Article II: ambiguity 2) Changing Expectations in 19th C 3) FDR Creation of Modern President

The Modern Presidency Explaining Changing Presidential Role 1) Article II: ambiguity a. Provides a lot of power b. But little protection 2) Changing Expectations in 19th C a. Use of the veto b. Appeals directly to the public

The Modern Presidency Explaining Changing Presidential Role 3) FDR Creation of Modern President: a. Greater formal and informal power 1) threats of backlash b. Leading national policy maker c. Rise of presidential bureaucracy 1) National Security State d. National political figure 1) How has Trump assumed this role?

The Modern Presidency Explaining Changing Presidential Role Strengths and Weaknesses of the Executive Power 1) Is vulnerable to political backlash Question: How might Trump’s use of social media result in a political backlash? How might it help him connect with his base?