O.Kryvobok, V.Balabuh Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute

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Presentation transcript:

O.Kryvobok, V.Balabuh Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute Combination of satellite data and instability indices for estimation of the storm severity O.Kryvobok, V.Balabuh Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute

Motivation Strong demand of our operational forecasters to forecast/nowcast the type of severe storm, we call it dangerous meteorological phenomena (DMP), especially in summer time, which is caused by convection (hail, severe wind, tornado, heavy rain). To improve our understandings about the spatial and temporal distribution of severe weather over Ukraine and database of DMP.

On the Use of Indices and Parameters in Forecasting Severe Storms (C On the Use of Indices and Parameters in Forecasting Severe Storms (C.Doswell) a. Example of representative problems with indices: EHI

Indicators of severe weather SWEAT VT index CT іndex Heavy rain Tornado Thickness 1000-500 hPa Temperature on condensational level Level of condensation Severe Wind

Tornado ( Smerch) (F2 according to Fujita scale) Critical values of severe weather indicators Heavy rain, 30 mm/hour Tornado ( Smerch) (F2 according to Fujita scale) Severe wind >25 m/s CAPE>600 J/кg CAPE>1050 J/kg Level of condensation <850 hPа SWEAT >168 SWEAT >235 Thickness of 1000 - 500 гПа >560 гПа VT>27 VT>28 TT>50 TT>52 Tконд>288 K CIL>576 hPa Тhikness 1000 - 500 hPa >540 hPa

SEVERE CLOUD DETECTION ON MSG Some standard RGB composites were used for detection of severe cloud (convection) (Final Report RGB Composite Sattelite Imagery Workshop. BOULDER, CO, U.S.A. 5-6 June 2007 ) . The physical features for detection of convection on the RGB composites are the following: low cloud top temperature; appearance of small ice crystals on the top of clouds; high content of water vapour in the mid level of the atmosphere; significant values of cloud optical thickness. RGB composites with HRV channel gives an additional spatial characteristic – image texture (for example, detection of storm anvils). We used MSG IR10.8 image in order to find so called cold-ring and cold U/V shape storm and trend (every 15min).

Analysis of tornado in L’viv on 23.06.08 at 10:30 UTC RGB 12,12,4-9 IR10.8

Analysis of tornado in L’viv on 23.06.08 at 11:30 UTC RGB 12,12,4-9 IR10.8

Area, where the critical values of indicators of tornado are observed on 23.06.2008

Analysis of heavy rain over western part of Ukraine on 23. 07 Analysis of heavy rain over western part of Ukraine on 23.07.08 at 11:30 UTC RGB 5-6,4-9,3-1 RGB 12,12,9-4

Analysis of heavy rain over western part of Ukraine on 23. 07 Analysis of heavy rain over western part of Ukraine on 23.07.08 at 11:30 UTC

Future plans to define the parameter, which could combined the indicators and provide the probability of occurrence of different type of severe weather to use WRF or Cosmo models to define the indicators in operational mode

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION