Decisions for the Seasons Experiencing Climate Risks EXPECT CONFUSION Inspired by a game developed for the World Bank

BASIC GAME RULES Deliberate distortion of reality No challenging the rules! No challenging of the rules during the game After the game – challenge away No sharing of resources Though noble, this will not help the games’ outcomes 1. Players should expect to be confused. The relationship between decisions and consequences can be complex, like in the real world. The confusion should dissipate as gameplay evolves and people figure out the implications of the rules. 2. The game is a deliberate distortion of reality, focusing on those aspects that contribute to the learning outcome. 3. Players join the game accepting the rules; there is no challenging the rules during gameplay. 4. Players cannot share or give away beans, otherwise players tend to behave in unrealistically altruistic and cooperative ways. 2

YOU Business in the agricultural sector Together in a province Players represents a business represtative working in the agricultural business.

Aim: Have a thriving agricultural business. This leads to prosperity for people in the province. Their aim is to have a thriving agricultural business, which leads to prosperity for people in the province. Image what prosperity could look like in your province

WINNERS & LOSERS Winning province: team with fewest crises (if tied: most prosperity) Losing province: Most crises

If you are comfortable to do so, you can explain that the dice represent the historical probability distribution function of extreme events based on the historical record of precipitation. In plain English this means: “the historical amount of rainfall”. A 1 is not very much rain, or drought, whereas a 6 is too much, and a flood.

1 year: 10 rolls: 10 districts Explain how you will roll the die 10 times. Each roll will represent the rains in one district, in one given year.

Need but don’t have protection? Crisis! Most thumbs up – most Prosperity Drought insurance Regular investment Flood insurance Insurance one of MANY options for managing risks. There are many other things that can be done to REDUCE the potential impact of an extreme event. 1. Ask all of the teams to stand up. In the first round you will impose investment choices. For one team, ask them to self- organise so that one player invests in drought preparedness (show this by cupping one of your hands over your head, like a bucket), another player invests in flood preparedness (show this by placing one of your arms over your head, like a roof), and all other players invest in regular investments (show this by sticking an arm out and a thumb up). For another team, ask them to self-organise so that one player invests in regular investments, and the remaining players are allocated evenly to drought preparedness and flood preparedness. All other teams must self-organise in a way of their choice, with more than one regular investments, more than one drought preparedness, and more than one flood preparedness. 2. Explain how you will roll the die 10 times. Each roll will represent the rains in one district, in one given year. If the die shows: 2,3,4, or 5, there is no problem. These rains are “normal”. However, each time a 1 is rolled, one of the players per district, who has invested in drought preparedness will shout Hero! - and will sit down. This represents having used drought insurance. In this game, insurance perfectly covers losses from damage. If however, there is no player who has invested in drought protection, that entire district is in trouble. All players shout: Oh no! (encourage them to be loud) and sit down. In reality, this means people are not protected and are suffering. This team receives one imaginary humanitarian crisis. Note: a team can experience more than one crisis in a year. The same mechanics apply for flood insurance. 3. Important Note: Insurance is just one of many options for managing risks… we of course know that they know that there are plenty of non-insurance things that can be done to REDUCE the potential impact of an extreme event before it happens. 4. Play through the practice round and get players to experience the consequences of their decisions. Then, tell them they can reset and discuss with their team members how they would like to invest for the coming year. Play the game following the sequence of information described on the next page. Each business decides how to to invest for the next year Extreme Event?  One ‘protection’ used each time a’1’ or a ‘6’ is rolled

LET’S PLAY!

WINNERS & LOSERS Winner: province with fewest crises (if tied: most prosperity) Losers: Most crises Remind players of the win state.

Need but don’t have insurance? Crisis! Year 1 Need but don’t have insurance? Crisis! Drought insurance Regular investment Flood insurance Year 1: play with the 6-sided die. Give players some time to strategise before and highlight some interesting things at the end. Each business decides how to spread its investments for the next year Extreme Event?  One ‘protection’ used each time a’1’ or a ‘6’ is rolled

Need but don’t have insurance? Crisis! Year 2 Need but don’t have insurance? Crisis! Drought insurance Regular investment Flood insurance Year 2: start with the 6-sided die, but after 3 rolls of the die announce there will be a surprise. Has anyone every heard of climate change? The historical probability of rainfall is no longer accurate. We will replace the 6-sided die by an 8-sided die, as the probability of certain extreme events has increased. A 1 still represents a drought, however now a 6, 7, or 8 represents a flood. There will likely be more humanitarian crises in this round. Keep encouraging players to shout: “Oh no!” before they sit down, if their team is in trouble. Each business decides how to spread its investments for the next year Extreme Event?  One ‘protection’ used each time a’1’ or a ‘6’ is rolled

the CLIMATE is CHANGING! Have you heard? the CLIMATE is CHANGING! What do we see: increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.  Hotter air holds more water vapour; the atmosphere will hold 7% more moisture per ℃. Wetter air can lead to more of the heaviest rains.

Increase in water related extreme events Note on Natural Disaster: Ecomist – source Munich re. So, of course, it is. The world’s average temperature is between 0.6 and 0.7°C (1.1- 1.3°F) higher than it was in 1979. Scientists have understood since the 1850s that hotter air holds more water vapour; a law known as the Clausius-Clapeyron equation states that for every degree Celsius of warming, the atmosphere will hold 7% more moisture. In 1989 two Japanese researchers used computers to model this phenomenon and concluded that this wetter air would lead to more of the heaviest rains rather than, say, near-perpetual drizzle. It is thus no surprise that insurers see an increase in water-related disasters (see chart 1).

2015 – researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found: Planet earth experienced 12% more record-breaking downpours between 1980-2010 than might have been expected without climate change. Other lines of evidence bear out the insurers’ loss data. In 2015 researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany compared computer models of the atmosphere as it now is and as it used to be to see how much of an impact these effects might be having. They found that the planet Earth experienced 12% more record-breaking downpours between 1980 and 2010 than might have been expected had the climate not been changing (see chart 2). The same year Reto Knutti and Erich Fischer at ETH Zurich, a Swiss university, found that the warming recorded since pre-industrial times made new one-day records for rainfall over land 18% more likely. For 2°C of warming, the target below which countries vowed to keep global warming under the Paris agreement of 2015, the figure would rise to 40%.

the CLIMATE is CHANGING! Have you heard? the CLIMATE is CHANGING! Each province decides how to spread its investments for the next decade Extreme Event?  One ‘protection’ used each time a’1’ or a ‘6-7-8’ is rolled

Need but don’t have insurance? Crisis! Year 3 Need but don’t have insurance? Crisis! Drought insurance Regular investment Flood insurance 3. Year 3: Start with the 8-sided die, announcing that for this entire round, the 8-sided die will represent the new probability. After the third round the game is over. Announce the winner(s). Each province decides how to spread its investments for the next decade Extreme Event?  One ‘protection’ used each time a’1’ or a ‘6’, ‘7’, or ‘8’ is rolled

Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time. - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Debrief time Form Trios What emotions and insights did you experience during this game? How does what you experienced link to your reality? What is one important way in which this game is different from reality? What (finance) systems could be improved to better deal with our changing climate?