eMarketer’s Live Analyst Series | PRO View, July 2019 Global Ecommerce 2019

Total Retail Sales Worldwide We estimate that the global retail market will increase 4.5%, a slight acceleration in growth vs. the prior year. That’s a marked decline from the five years preceding when global retail sales grew between 5.7% and 7.5% each year. We estimate that the global retail market will reach $25.04 trillion in 2019, an increase of 4.5% and slight acceleration in growth vs. the prior year. At the same time, it represents a marked decline from the five years preceding that, when global retail sales grew between 5.7% and 7.5% each year.

Global Retail Ecommerce The global ecommerce market will nearly double by 2023. The global ecommerce market will reach $3.53 trillion in 2019 and nearly double to $6.54 trillion by 2023.

Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth by Region Even with the cooling off of China’s previously hot consumer economy, Asia-Pacific will still lead the global ecommerce growth charge in 2019. We expect the region to see growth of 25.0% to $2.27 trillion, representing 64.3% of global ecommerce spending. Latin America and Middle East & Africa will experience identical year-over-year growth rates of 21.3%, slightly outpacing the global average, while North America (up 14.5%) and Western Europe (up 10.2%) are the laggards.

Top 10 Countries by growth Six of the top ten fastest growing ecommerce countries in 2019 hail from the Asia-Pacific region. Latin America boasts the top-growing overall ecommerce market—Mexico at 35.0%. Even more mature regions for ecommerce like North America (Canada, 21.1% growth) and Europe (Russia, 18.8% growth) claimed a spot in the top ten. APAC Six of the top ten fastest growing ecommerce countries in 2019 hail from the Asia-Pacific region, led by India and the Philippines at more than 30% growth and rounded out by China, Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea. Latin America boasts the top-growing overall ecommerce market—Mexico at 35.0%-- and No. 8 Argentina. Even more mature regions for ecommerce like North America (Canada, 21.1% growth) and Europe (Russia, 18.8% growth) claimed a spot in the top ten.

Top 10 Countries by sales In 2019, the top global ecommerce market will be China with more than three times more sales than the US at No. 2. On its own, China represents 54.7% of the global ecommerce market, a share nearly twice that of the next five countries combined. As China goes, so goes the global ecommerce market.

Retail Mcommerce, by region One of the more interesting ecommerce disparities across the globe is the split between desktop and mobile commerce. North America and Western Europe have lower levels of mcommerce penetration, due in part to these markets’ growth periods coinciding with the desktop era. The more developed ecommerce markets in North America and Western Europe have lower levels of mcommerce penetration, projected at 43.7% and 40.5%, respectively. This mobile monetization lag is due, in part, to these markets’ growth periods coinciding with the desktop era. Legacy retailer infrastructure and ingrained consumer behaviors may prevent a swifter transition to mobile commerce, despite mobile’s obvious prevalence in consumers’ daily lives.

Digital Buyer Penetration Worldwide The future growth of ecommerce markets depends largely on their current level of market maturity and digital buyer penetration. North America and Western Europe lead on this measure in 2019, while Asia-Pacific also boasts a fairly developed penetration. Other regions of the world, such as Latin America, Central and Eastern and Middle East and Africa are all currently in the development phase. Developing regions The future growth of ecommerce markets depends largely on their current level of market maturity and digital buyer penetration. North America (79.9%) and Western Europe (75.6%) will lead on this measure in 2019, while Asia-Pacific also boasts a fairly developed penetration (69.1%). Other regions of the world, such as Latin America (54.1%), Central and Eastern Europe (49.7%) and Middle East and Africa (37.6%) are all currently in the development phase.

What’s Behind Global Ecommerce Growth Trends? Behind the Numbers: What’s Behind Global Ecommerce Growth Trends?

Trend 1: Marketplaces leading the charge Despite Amazon’s overall global ecommerce market leadership – in market cap and influence – China’s top two marketplaces Taobao and Tmall have greater GMV China’s JD.com is also exceptional in its size Marketplaces are the market share leaders in every corner of the globe. While Amazon remains the global leader in revenue and market cap, it’s actually eclipsed by both of Alibaba’s platforms – Taobao and Tmall – in terms of GMV. Both are exclusively third-party, though. Meanwhile JD.com, China’s other large platform, is also of similar scale to Amazon.

Trend 2: Cross-border commerce rising Cross-border buyers make up at least 1/3 of digital buying population across most markets Improved shipping, logistics, and site operations have helped acclimate shoppers to its benefits Across virtually every major ecommerce market, a notable percentage of online buyers make cross-border purchases. With innovations in international shipping and logistics, and retailers developing content and marketing strategies to go cross-border, consumers are increasingly responding to brands beyond their own borders.

Trend 3: ‘New Retail’ = global imperative ‘New retail’ demands omnichannel excellence, of which click-and-collect has become a large and growing part Click-and-collect adoption is all about saving time and money Alibaba’s Jack Ma coined the term ‘New Retail’ a couple years back to articulate the imperative of having customer-centric, channel agnostic commerce experiences. Retail must be designed to provide consistent brand experiences that provide fulfillment to the customer in whichever manner they desire, whether that’s in-store, click-and-collect, or home delivery.

Trend 4: Social driving more ecommerce In the US, social referral to ecommerce sites has tripled over the past 3 years. Facebook, Instagram and Pinterest have been the three biggest drivers of the shift Social commerce is finally beginning to fulfill its long-held promise, and beginning to drive a meaningful percentage of click-through to ecommerce sites. Platforms like Pinterest and Instagram that are contextually relevant to shopping experiences are behind the trend, while Facebook’s well-targeted ad campaigns for ecommerce retailers are generating clicks.

Trend 5: China leading in retail innovation From ‘New Retail’ to Singles Day to mobile/social commerce, China is leading most big ecommerce trends today And upstarts like Pinduoduo are bringing new ecommerce models to market China’s reputation in tech has often been one of co-opting others’ innovations, but the tables are starting to turn when it comes to ecommerce. Many of the biggest trends driving the market today are being led by Alibaba and other upstarts in China, which grew up in a mobile-first paradigm.

Key Takeaways Global ecommerce growth remains strong despite economic headwinds Global ecommerce is now driven by a mobile commerce majority. ‘New Retail’ is the new global retail imperative. Alibaba and Amazon continue to battle for global retail supremacy. Cross-border commerce is a path to growth.