Disorder and Insecurity in Residential Context A study focusing on Finnish suburban housing estates of the 1960s and 1970s Teemu Kemppainen VTE 26.9.2016

Background Academy of Finland: PREFARE (2012-2015) Three sub-projects Housing estate: post-WWII, modernist, multi-storey, peripheral Estate studies: case studies, non-random ”problem” samples Convergence: Social disorganisation theory: crime and disorder Fear of crime literature

Sub-studies I Kemppainen T & Saarsalmi P (2015): Perceived social disorder in suburban housing estates in the Helsinki region: a contextual analysis. Research on Finnish Society 8: 47–60. II Kemppainen T, Kauppinen TM, Stjernberg M & Sund R: Tenure structure and perceived social disorder in post-WWII suburban housing estates: A multi-level study with a representative sample of estates. [Submitted to Acta Sociologica, minor revisions] III Kemppainen T, Lönnqvist H & Tuominen M (2014): Turvattomuus ei jakaudu tasan: Mitkä asuinalueen piirteet selittävät helsinkiläisten kokemaa turvattomuutta? Yhteiskuntapolitiikka 79(1): 5–20. [Insecurity is not evenly distributed. Which residential area characteristics explain experiences of insecurity in Helsinki?] IV Kemppainen T (2014): Spatiaalista mallinnusta pistedatalla: kyselypohjainen analyysi koetusta terveydestä ja turvattomuudesta Helsingin metropolialueella. Sosiaalilääketieteellinen aikakauslehti 51(4): 253–271. [Spatial modeling of point data: a survey-based analysis of self-rated health and feeling of unsafety in the Helsinki metropolitan area.]

Three sets of data Survey data Contextual register data Helsinki & districts Helsinki region & statistical grids Finnish estates of the 60s and 70s & aggregates of grids Next: main results (excl. IV)

Sub-study I: estates vs other neighbourhoods

Key findings (I) The level of perceived social disorder is only slightly higher in the estates of the 1960s and 1970s compared to other multi-storey neighbourhoods the small difference is due to socio-economic disadvantage. Low-rise neighbourhoods are considerably more peaceful than the multi-storey ones

Sub-study II: diverse estates

Key findings (II) Rental domination  disadvantage  disorder Normative regulation mediates partly the latter association Integration plays no role

Sub-study III: insecurity in Helsinki

Key findings (III) Disadvantage, disorder (police), metro/train stations, social housing block of flats  insecurity Disadvantage – victimisation – insecurity

Discussion Contribution to disorganisation theory survey data on the outcome (cf. court & police data) fairly good neighbourhood definition (II) extra-community forces Contribution to fear of crime literature independent measures of disorder and insecurity (III) the role of victimisation: inconsistent prior findings public transport & insecurity: advanced quantitative studies were needed Further points disadvantage—disorder: regulation explains only partly disadvantage—insecurity... housing market perspectives & tenure mix estate definition language & target population reciprocal causality & omitted variables spatiality replication