The Federal R&D Budget Outlook Matt Hourihan September 23, 2019 For the State University System of Florida DC Workshop AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/rd

Congressional R&D Highlights: NIH 5th straight year of multibillion-dollar increases on the docket… House: +$2 billion, +4.7% Senate: +$3 billion, +7.7% Would be highest funding since FY06 Most ICs receive increases of ~5% Select Priorities: Alzheimer’s: increased to $2.4-$2.8 billion Precision medicine: $500 million BRAIN Initiative: $411 mil vs. $500 mil New money: Pediatric cancer initiative: $50 million in both, as requested Gun violence research: $50 million split between NIH / CDC in House Facilities: Extramural R&D facilities grants: $25 vs. $50 million Senate: $300 million for NIH facilities

Congressional R&D Highlights: DOE Office of Science: House: +$285 million, +4.3% Senate: +$630 million, +9.6% Increases for undergrad support, math & CS research, ITER, among other areas $10-$20 million increases for Energy Frontier Research Centers with new awards planned in FY20 $75 million for new Quantum Science Centers Technology Programs: ARPA-E: saved (again), increased by 16.9% in both Efficiency and renewables: increases of 12-18% Fossil: boosts for CCS, select other increases Nuclear: mixed bag, apart from demonstration programs Big increases for cybersecurity and grid R&D

Congressional R&D Highlights: DOD & USDA DOD Basic Research: House: +$14 million, +0.5% Senate: +$100 million, +3.9% University Initiatives: better in House, cut in Senate Army boosted, mixed for others National Defense Education Program and DARPA both trimmed in Senate Medical research: $920 million vs. $809 million for CDMRP research FY19: $1.2 billion Defense Innovation Unit / National Security Innovation Network granted increases US Department of Agriculture: Extramural research (NIFA) fares a bit better in House… AFRI: 12% vs 2.4% increases Similar story for capacity grants …while intramural (ARS) fares better in Senate NIFA, ERS move to Kansas City funded in Senate bill, while House continues to oppose Mulvaney: “What a wonderful way to streamline government”

House-Only So Far… NSF: +$561 million, 6.9% above FY19 STEM ed programs supported NASA: +3.8%; Science Directorate +3.7% Increases for WFIRST (Astrophysics), Earth Science Education office (Space Grant) spared from elimination Climate + Environment: EPA, NOAA, USGS have all dodged big cuts NOAA: plus-ups of ~9% or more for ocean, coastal, atmospheric, and climate research programs; Sea Grant saved USGS: largest increases for geological mapping, geospatial programs Other boosts: VA research up 7.8% NIST Lab programs up 3.7%

State of Play and Next Steps House mostly done: we estimate an overall increase of ~6% for research funding Senate rolling…in a fashion. Some issues: Border wall Abortion funding Gun violence research line items But other research-relevant legislation (CJS, Interior, Energy) could see clearer sailing…? Still haven’t gone to conference. Fiscal year ends September 30: House CR runs through November 21 (Image source: Roll Call)

Beyond This Fall Next year, much more limited cap space: less than 1% increase for defense and nondefense Also, an election year… 2021: No more caps Though “how much to spend” doesn’t stop being a major political question! Budget resolution and debt ceiling return Fiscal future: aging population, rising healthcare costs, and insufficient revenues mean…growing deficits, rising interest payments, and declining discretionary spending And THAT could all mean stagnating science funding for some years to come Or fiscal blowback (again)?

mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/rd For more info… mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/rd