Regional climate knowledge for society 11th International Coastal Symposium (ICS 2011), Szczecin, Poland, "Szczecin Climate Seminar") Regional climate knowledge for society Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Center Geesthacht, and KlimaCampus Hamburg; Germany Related publications von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Science Pol. 12, 741‐747 von Storch, H., I. Meinke, N. Stehr, B. Ratter, W. Krauss, R.A. Pielke jr., R. Grundmann, M. Reckermann and R. Weisse, 2010: Regional Climate Service. Zeitschrift für Umweltpolitik & Umweltrecht 1/2011, 1-15 von Storch, H., A. Bunde and N. Stehr, 2011: The Physical Sciences and Climate Politics. In J.S. Dyzek, D. Schlosberg, and R. B. Norgaard (eds): The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society. Oxford University Press. Oxford UK (in press)

Professor at the Meteorological Institute of Hamburg University Hans von Storch (born 1949) Director of Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, near Hamburg, Professor at the Meteorological Institute of Hamburg University Works also with social and cultural scientists. Who is this? 2

Global temperature derived from thermometer data (CRU) The IPCC consensus

Explaining global mean surface air temperature Additional ly man- made factors Only natural factors „observations“ The IPCC consensus IPCC 2007

Scenarios, not predictions The IPCC consensus

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Mission: determine present status of scientific knowledge, and its consensus – not: discover “truth” about climate change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The IPCC consensus

The IPCC is needed as an impartial institution to provide relevant knowledge for decision makers. has documented strong consensual evidence that the human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the past, and foreseeable future has, and will continue to warm the climate system. most of this warming can not be explained without the increase in GHG concentrations – with the present knowledge. The IPCC consensus

Scientists are convinced … Increasing level of consensus among scientists concerning the matters (manifestation) that climate change is underway and that it is likely a result of anthropogenic influences (attribution) Bray, 2010

… but skepticism prevails in parts of the public. Scientists are convinced … USA-sample

Climate science informs climate policy about needs, options and measures. In doing so, there is a need for knowledge abut climate dynamics, climate perspectives, impacts, vulnerabilities and the efficiency of measures (for mitigation and adaptation). This process may be called “Climate Service”. For the global and for the regional stage, different stakeholders are relevant. When dealing the national and international dimension a significant component deals with mitigation, and global a nd superregional issues. This is Global Climate Service. When dealing with regional (state-level, municipalities, sectors), adaptation is most often priority, and the process is called Regional Climate Service.

A „linear model“-framework of how to think about response strategies (Hasselmann, 1990) 11

Constructions Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories. The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media. Climate science is in a post-normal phase (where interest-led utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity)

Is scientific knowledge driving the policy process? 13

Postnormal science Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier State of science, when facts uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent. In this state, science is not done for reasons for curiosity but is asked for as support for preconceived value-based agendas.

Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful? Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“ Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided Temperature Warszawa Lund and Stockholm Storms 15

The title: “today flood tomorrow drought” and subtitle “Poland as an Egypt of Europe”. There is a water deficit and it will be longer. Title on the picture “Pouring from the empty”. Two pictures - one with comment Vistula is flowing (after big showers) and on a bigger picture Vistula was flowing here (in Kazimierz the water level has got lower so much that ships run aground).

Knowledge market The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“. The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated. Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”. The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation marked“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. The social process „science“ is influenced by these other knowledge forms. 18

Which alternative knowledge claims? skeptics political interests (e.g., deniers, alarmists) climatic determinism religion others

USA-sample

„Skeptics“ Non-representative survey on Klimazwiebel-blog done by Rob Maris with the help of Peter Heller

“Man lives in balance with his climate” Distribution of civilizations in early 20th century (expert map) “Man lives in balance with his climate” Huntington, 1916 Climatically determined „energy“ of people

Regional Climate service comprises … Analysis of cultural construct, including common exaggeration in the media. Determination of response options on the local and regional scale: mainly adaptation but also regional and local mitigation. Dialogue of stakeholders and climate knowledge brokers in „Klimabureaus“. 2. Analysis of consensus on relevant issues (climate consensus reports). 3. Description of recent and present changes. - Projection of possible future changes, which are dynamically consistent and possible („scenarios“).

1 North German Climate Office@HZG An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning

„Klimaatlas“ http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de Raw data from 12 regional climate projections Analyzed for Northern Germany and the Odra estuary region Interactive user interface

Local scenarios

2 climate consensus reports An effort to establish which scientifically legitimized knowledge about anthropogenic climate change is available for the Baltic Sea catchment. Approximately 80 scientist from 10 countries have documented and assessed the published knowledge. The assessment has been accepted by the inter- governmental HELCOM commission as a basis for its future deliberations. For 2013 the publication of a second assessment report (BACC II) is planned. 45 min‘s The Climate Change Assessment: Report for the Baltic Sea catchment - BACC

Climate assessment for the metropolitan region of Hamburg climate consensus reports In 2007-2010 a climate assessment report about the scientifically documented knowledge of climate change in the region of Hamburg has been prepared – an activity of the Climate Center of Excellence CLISAP at the University of Hamburg, jointly operated with HZG and MPI. The effort is supported by the Senate of Hamburg and by the Environmental Ministry of Schleswig Holstein. Climate assessment for the metropolitan region of Hamburg

3 Regional and local conditions – in the recent past and next century? Simulation with barotropic model of Noth Sea Globale development (NCEP) Dynamical downscaling REMO or CLM Pegel St. Pauli Cooperation with a variety of governmental agencies and with a number of private companies Empirical downscaling

www.coastdat.de The CoastDat data set: Long (50 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea Clients: Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy) General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change GKSS in Geesthacht

Some applications of Ship design Navigational safety Offshore wind Interpretation of measurements Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution Ocean energy Scenarios of storm surge conditions Scenarios of future wave conditions Wave Energy Flux [kW/m] Currents Power [W/m2] 33

Task of science is to offer explanation for a complex world, its dynamics, links and dependencies. but not to derive what needs to be done, but what can be done. establish measures to establish quality of science by insisting on scientific method (cf. Merton‘s CUDOS). The capital of science is not the utility of the scientific findings but the methodology used to obtain such findings.

Merton‘s CUDOS Communalism: the common ownership of scientific discoveries, according to which scientists give up intellectual property rights in exchange for recognition and esteem. Universalism: according to which claims to truth are evaluated in terms of universal or impersonal criteria, and not on the basis of race, class, gender, religion, or nationality. Disinterestedness: scientists, when presenting their work publicly, should do so without any prejudice or personal values and do so in an impersonal manner. Organized skepticism: all ideas must be tested and are subject to rigorous, structured community (peer review) scrutiny.

Take home Societal service of science is the provision of explanation of complex phenomena, using the scientific methodology a la Merton (CUDOS). Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, which goes along with a tendency of policizing science, and scientizing politics. Cultural science need to support climate science to deal with this challenge. Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the establishment of a dialogue with the public (direct or via media) and stakeholders –recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue.

"Klimatlas" dostarcza scenariuszy prawdopodobnych zmian klimatycznych dla obszaru Niemiec. Wraz z rozpoczęciem nowego wspólnego projektu pomiędzy Uniwersytetem Szczecińskim i Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, obszar ten zostanie rozszerzony, obejmując całą południową część Zatoki Pomorskiej wraz z obszarem lądowym i miastem Szczecin jako punkt centralny. Istniejąca strona internetowa tego projektu, dostępna w języku niemieckim, będzie w krótce uzupełniona o wersję polskojęzyczną. Więcej na stronie: http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de/