COM546 : Frameworks and Theories: Diffusion and Adoption Kathy E. Gill 27 January 2009

Theories (recap) (1/2) Scientific Humanistic Why: Discover the “truth” Create meaning Values: Objectivity “Emancipation” Purpose: Determine universal laws Provide rules for interpretation

Theories (recap) (2/2) Scientific Humanistic Research Methods: Quantitative: experiment, survey Qualitative: ethnography, textual analysis Judged by: Explains data Predicts future Testable hypothesis Practicality Explains human behavior Clarifies values Consensus Ability to reform society

Two Theories of Mediated Communication Shannon-Weaver “Transmission model” or “hypodermic model Osgood & Schramm “Circular model” that stresses the social nature of communication

Thinking About Rogers and Christensen …

Linear innovation-diffusion theory The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system. Rogers, 1995, page 5

Elements Innovation Social system Time Communications channels

Innovation An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

Communication A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding

Time Source

Infographic credited to NYT

Social System A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal. Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

Innovation-Decision Process The mental process through which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

Rogers: Five steps of adoption Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation

Critical Mass Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”

Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards

Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010 Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”

The Five-Year Forecast: Household Devices, Access July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US” The Five-Year Forecast: Household Devices, Access

The Five-Year Forecast: Personal Devices July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US” The Five-Year Forecast: Personal Devices

More than 55% of households will have a DVR by 2011? Source: Forrester’s North American Consumer Technology Adoption Study 2006 Benchmark Survey

Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object. Software - the knowledge base for the tool

For additional thought … Increasing capacity w/out adding wires (telegraph). Parallels today? Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? …. ? v Google? What is today’s “railroad” sector? Price models: Bell’s renting the phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, cellphone contracts … what do they have in common? Increasing capacity without adding wires – challenge from telegraph to telephone – challenge for broadband Parallels between grey and bell & andreesen and gates What is the corollary to the railroads re adoption of technologies today? Price models : bell’s “renting” the phone … IBM’s “renting” the computer … Constant software upgrades … Suppression of a patent

Thinking About Rogers and Christensen … we’ll talk about disruptive technologies

Credits Presentation by Kathy E. Gill, kegill@u.washington.edu, @kegill CC share-and-share alike, non-commercial use “S-curve” from http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/cm/cm05/over view05/keycomms/