Closing the Geoscience Talent Gap Christopher M. Keane American Geological Institute 12 December 2007

Where we are today… ~50% of geoscience highest degree earners do NOT work as a geoscientist ~50% of working geoscientists do NOT have their highest degree in geosciences Functionally 0% MS & Ph.D. unemployment since 2001 Rapid new hire demand Employer dissatisfaction with new hires

US Geoscience Employment 1986 1993 Petroleum 34% Mining 7% Environment 12% Government Retired/Unemployed 23% Academic 11% Academic 7% Government 12% Petroleum 50% Mining 9% Environmental Retired/Unemployed 10% Other 5% 2000 2005 Petroleum 30% Mining 8% Environmental 14% Government 16% Academia 20% Unemployed/Retired 6% Other Petroleum 43% Mining 12% Other Services 1% Environmental 8% Exec. Management Academia 17% Government 18% NSF/AGI/BLS

Petroleum Geoscientist Demand Geologists, Geophysicists, and Engineers 90 80 Demand 70 60 Total Workforce 50 Current Workforce Petroleum Geoscientists (Thousands) 40 30 20 New Entries (3% Growth) 10 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year

Mean Salaries 2005 Geologists Hydrologists Petroleum $107K Mining $69K Finance $84K Consulting $68K Academia $58K Government Federal $86K State $51K Local $62K Hydrologists Consulting $65K Academia $57K Government Federal $75K State $52K Local $63K BLS

What about these B.S. New Hires? Substantial hiring of new geology/environmental science Bachelor recipients What are their REAL future prospects? Professional geoscientist? Starbucks Barrista? Wal-Mart Greeter? Is the profession serving them honestly?

The Enrollment Rollercoaster 1955-2005 40000 35000 Undergraduate 30000 25000 Majors 20000 15000 Graduate 10000 5000 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Newly Minted Geoscientists 8000 7000 6000 B.S. 5000 4000 3000 M.S. 2000 1000 Ph.D. 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Race and Gender – the future? Females now dominate at the university Geoscience second at attracting women 48% of new B.S 42% of new Ph.Ds Industry discontinuing female preferences Race Minorities tend not to move for college Few geo programs near minority areas Most come through Community Colleges Lack of cultural continuity

Student Attitudes and Careers 2005 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% State/Local Federal Environmental Mining Petroleum Academia K-12 High Tech General Business Continue Education Other Outside of Geoscience Intention Rate AGI

Student Interest vs. Opportunity Hostility towards private sector Source of bulk of opportunities “Environmental Awareness” Student interest declines precipitously Preference for government Little to no hiring growth 29% of students intend to look at “non-traditional” careers

Why Do Students Choose a Field? Self-Efficacy Work towards tangible success Make the class attractive and applied Outcome Expectations Promote rewards of the success Social & Intellectual Standing Interest Align with interests and currency Be innovative Make success attainable Akbulut & Looney, ACM Communications, October 2007

Challenges Today and Ahead

Common Employer Concerns Poor student preparation Little or poor quality field experience Too much specialization (e.g. Env. Companies want geologists, not environmental science majors, but will hire a strong back) Work ethic challenges Little sense of professionalism US new hire parochialism Business sense What business sense? The Sleepless Night Points Fear the budget at all levels Future leadership

The Challenges Geoscience must compete aggressively for the best Budget issues are not unique Why do we want majors Meet societies needs Framework for leadership Not losing the opportunities K-12 is starting to rebound Jobs are available Bridging the gap from K-12 to major

Need Some New Thinking Attrition Math Internal Competition 340,000 Intro Geo Students 6,000 New Geo Majors Per Year 2,700 New Geo BS Degrees Per Year Internal Competition “Young” Geology 101 Make it the “Gotta Have” class for the left-brained Are we fighting for other STEM students? Differentiate program on campus, not between schools How to meet needs in a Uni. Environment Divergent university and professional demands

Geoscience Aware Public Total Success Geoscience Aware Public Healthy Departments Gainful employment