Public Opinion Poll Voting Intensions And Political State Of Kenya december 2012 PREPARED BY   Strategic Research Limited Titan Plaza, Chaka Road, Nairobi, Kenya P.O. Box 7201 - 00100 Nairobi, Tel: 254-020-2712212/3, Email: info@strategicafrica.com Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Contents Of The Report Public Opinion Poll Survey Introduction Methodology Demographics Findings Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Public Opinion Poll Methodology Strategic Research Ltd. Conducted a country wide public opinion poll survey on socio- economic and political state of Kenya. A sample size of 1500 respondents was drawn and distributed across the 36 counties based on the respective population as per the 2009 Census. The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size (PPS), adopting purposive, random and systematic sampling techniques. This ensured respondents aged 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. Specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya. The data collection involved face-to-face interviewing of respondents at household level using a semi-structured questionnaire. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied through back checks and accompaniments.

Summary On Poll Methodology Survey Area Nation Wide Sample size 1500 Sample distribution Stratified Multi-stage Sampling (Using PPS) Target Population Respondents at Household level across 36 Counties Instrument Semi-structured questionnaires administered using face-to-face interviews Sampling error +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level Field Dates December 17th – 19th 2012 Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Regions Covered Regions County Frequency % Central Kiambu, Nyeri, Muranga, Kirinyaga 180 11.6 Coast Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale, 144 9.3 Eastern Meru, Machakos, Kitui, Embu, 188 12.1 Nairobi 149 9.6 North Eastern Garissa, Mandera, Wajir 105 6.8 Nyanza Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nyamira, Siaya 214 13.8 Rift Valley Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho, Kajiado, Laikipia, Trans-Nzoia, Baringo, Narok; Elgeyo Marakwet, Marsabit, West Pokot, 345 22.3 Western Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Busia 224 14.5 1549 100 Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Demographics Age N % Religion 18 - 24 310 19.4 Christian 1350 87.2 25 - 29 356 23 Muslim 174 11.2 30 - 34 283 18.3 Budhist/Hindu 1 0.1 35 - 39 209 13.5 Traditional 18 1.2 40 - 44 135 8.7 Others 6 0.4 45 - 49 89 5.7 Total 1549 100 50 - 54 94 6.1 Education 55 - 60 43 2.8 No formal education 60 3.9 60+ 38 2.5 Primary school 313 20.2 RTA Secondary school 656 42.3 Post secondary school 362 23.4 Gender University 149 9.6 Male 833 53.8 9 0.6 Female 716 46.2

Findings Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Have you registered to vote Reasons for lack of registration   % Delaying of ID/Lack of ID 63.5 Lack of interest 13.5 Lack of time Not worthy his/her time/time watsge 5.8 Sickness 3.8 Total 100.0   Nairobi Central Coast Eastern North Eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western Total Yes 97.3% 96.1% 89.6% 90.4% 96.2% 92.5% 95.3% 91.1% 93.3% No 2.7% 3.9% 10.4% 9.6% 3.8% 7.5% 4.7% 8.9% 6.7% 100.0% Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

What is your biggest fear ahead of the next elections scheduled for March 2013   Nairobi Central Coast Eastern North Eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western Violence 84.6% 59.4% 52.1% 39.9% 40.0% 53.6% 55.6% 51.8% Increased insecurity 8.1% 23.3% 24.3% 33.0% 20.0% 15.7% 28.5% 11.6% Poor registration of voters 2.7% 6.7% 6.9% 7.4% 3.8% 15.4% 8.9% 17.9% No fear 5.6% 9.0% 3.7% 24.8% 10.4% 4.7% 12.5% Rigging electiosn 2.0% 1.1% 1.4% 2.9% .6% .5% 1.8% Tribalism/ethnicity 1.7% .7% 4.8% 1.2% 1.3% Unemployment Voter education 2.1% 1.0% .4% Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

What do you see as the biggest challenge facing the country today that you would wish to be addressed   Nairobi Central Coast Eastern North Eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western Insecurity 27.7% 32.2% 27.3% 28.2% 28.5% 50.9% 17.2% Unemployment 25.7% 27.8% 25.9% 14.6% 24.4% 27.6% 25.3% Economic development 11.5% 13.3% 8.4% 5.9% 3.9% 10.2% 3.3% 23.5% Corruption 7.8% 11.7% 8.7% 7.3% 4.2% 12.7% Ethnicity 12.8% 2.8% 4.9% 2.1% 18.4% 11.0% 3.7% 5.0% Roads 9.0% 2.3% 1.4% Education 2.7% .5% 1.0% 3.2% 3.6% Food security 2.2% Health 2.0% 1.8% Agriculture, Environmental conservation and Water 1.9% 2.9% .9% Constitutional implementation .7% 1.5% Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Looking at the coalitions that have been formed, which coalition/candidate would you likely vote for if presidential elections were held today Nairobi Central Coast Eastern North Eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western 40.9% 5.7% 66.4% 48.6% 58.0% 36.8% 83.1% 66.2% 49.0% 88.6% 19.5% 44.8% 33.0% 55.9% 15.0% 25.9% 5.4% 2.3% 3.1% 2.7% 8.0% 4.1% 1.4% .5% .7%   3.9% 1.8% 6.0% 2.0% 1.7% 5.5% 3.3% .9% 1.3% 1.0% .6% 1.6% Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Who is your preferred presidential candidate for the coalition you have mentioned   CORD – (Raila/ Kalonzo/ Wetangula) Jubilee – (Uhuru/ Ruto/ Mudavadi/ Ngilu) Pambazuka – (Wamalwa/ Biwott/ Jirongo) Tunawesmake – (Kenneth/ Tuju) Martha Karua Ole Kiyapi Raila Odinga 92.8% Uhuru Kenyatta 71.9% William Ruto 4.3% 100.0% Peter Kenneth 78.7% Kalonzo Musyoka 6.2% Raphael Tuju 8.5% Musalia Mudavadi 18.4% Eugene Wamalwa 52.0% Charity Ngilu 1.1% Nicholas Biwott 12.0% Dont know/undecided 4.2% 36.0% 12.8% Total Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

If your preferred presidential candidate for the coalition is not nominated/selected within the coalition, what would you do   CORD – (Raila/Kalonzo/Wetangula) Jubilee – (Uhuru/Ruto/Mudavadi/Ngilu) Pambazuka – (Wamalwa/ Biwott/Jirongo) Tunawesmake – (Kenneth/Tuju) Martha Karua Ole Kiyapi Still vote for the coalition 81.4% 74.7% 64.0% 53.2% 30.4% 66.7% Vote for another coalition instead 10.8% 14.1% 20.0% 31.9% 34.8% 33.3% Not vote at all 7.5% 9.0% 4.0% 10.6% 21.7% Dont know/undecided .3% 2.2% 12.0% 4.3% 13.0% Total 100.0% Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

If your preferred presidential candidate for the coalition is not nominated/selected within the coalition, what would you do CORD Cord Preferred candidate Still vote for the coalition Vote for another coalition Not vote at all Raila Odinga 92.8 81.2% 10.9% 8.0% Kalonzo Musyoka 6.2 88.6% 9.1% 2.3% Pambazuka Pambazuka Preferred candidate Still vote for the coalition Vote for another coalition Not vote at all Eugene Wamalwa 52 76.9% 23.1%   Nicholas Biwott 12 100.0% Jubilee Jubilee Preferred candidate Still vote for the coalition Vote for another coalition Not vote at all Uhuru Kenyatta 71.9 81.7% 8.8% 9.5% William Ruto 4.3 85.7% 10.7% 3.6% Musalia Mudavadi 18.4 55.5% 33.6% 10.9% Charity Ngilu 1.1 71.4% 28.6%   Tunawesmake Tunawesmake Preferred candidate Still vote for the coalition Vote for another coalition Not vote at all Peter Kenneth 78.7 56.8% 35.1% 8.1% Raphael Tuju 8.5 75.0%   25.0% Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Which is your favourite Tv Station Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Which is your favourite Radio Station Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Which is your favourite Newspaper Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com

Thank you Updating The Past, Informing The Future Strategic Public Relations and Research Limited Titan Plaza, Chaka Road, Nairobi, Kenya P.O. Box 7201 - 00100 Nairobi, Tel: 254-020-2712212/3, Email: info@strategicafrica.com Updating The Past, Informing The Future www.strategicafrica.com