Joe Devine, Graham K. Brown, and Ipshita Basu Good governance, rights and the demand for democracy: evidence from bangladesh Joe Devine, Graham K. Brown, and Ipshita Basu

A tale of two democracies Two ‘theoretical perspectives’ on democracy: ‘Modernisation’: Economic growth, middle classes, accountability. From a practical perspective, largely reflects a donor discourse of ‘good governance’: Democracy is a means of achieving desired ends – ‘good’ policy, reduced corruption, etc. Institutional focus. ‘Rights based approach’: Democracy is a normatively preferable system of governance. From a practical perspective, reflects civil society/NGO activity and mobilisation of groups. For Sen, ‘Accountability’ and ‘Voice’ are inextricably linked: entitlement failure, famine, etc. Are they?

Background of Democracy in Bangladesh… Formal democracy (post 1990) with ongoing concerns around bipartisanship of political life, politicisations of public life, systemic violence, accusation of corruption, political debate in the streets as opposed to in parliament. Uncertainty over position and role of religion in political landscape All of this with roots in history of Bangladesh Trace histiory in the paper and although 90 is a watershed, there is more continuity in all of this. Bangladesh the next afghanistan?

Research Questions How far are these different perspectives and discourses on democracy reflected in the wider population? How far do different classes and social groups tend to privilege one perspective over the other? What are the implications for consolidating meaningful democracy in Bangladesh?

Survey Methodology Method: Unique nationally representative survey of attitudes to democracy (December 2010) 2520 respondents 44 Districts covering the 7 administrative divisions of Bangladesh Urban/rural (30:70); male/female (50:50); 18 years above; literacy (73% literate)

Creating indices of ‘Institutional’ and ‘Rights’ perspectives The survey asked respondents to identify range of factors they thought ‘essential’ for democracy. We divided them into those that related to an ‘institutional’ perspective and those that related to a ‘rights’ perspective: Institutional Perspective Rights Perspective The courts are independent from political influence We are free to criticize those in power We can carry out business/economic activities without fear of extortion Everyone is free to practice their own religion We don’t have to bribe officials We are free to speak our mind …

Creating indices of ‘Institutions’ and ‘Rights’ Institutional Index Rights Index Points to make: The statistical method ensures that the average results is 0 with a standard deviation of 1. About 700 are less (least) interested in the instutitional side; about 450 least interested in rights.

Who supports ‘institutional’ perspective? Education is an important predictor: Higher levels of education translate into higher support for an institutional perspective Men score higher than women Income is positive: Richer people support institutional perspective Rural areas negative: Rural areas less supportive of institutional perspective Religion does not matter, neither does age Clear class, urban focused, male (?) story Variable Age 0.00107 Gender (Male) 0.117*** Primary 0.0984*** Secondary 0.210*** Tertiary 0.257*** Rural -0.0713** Income 0.0642*** Non-Muslim 0.0243 Constant -0.762***

Who supports ‘rights’ perspective? Education is also important, but not as systematically as for institutional perspective Gender again matters: Men more supportive In contrast to institutions, income and rurality do not matter, Religion however does matter More generally, less significant results = rights perspective is broadly similar across different groups No clear class story Variable Age -0.000199 Gender (Male) 0.0890*** Primary 0.0561 Secondary 0.258*** Tertiary 0.245*** Rural 0.0198 Income 0.0133 Non-Muslim 0.110** Constant -0.295

Commitment to democracy How far do these two different perspective on democracy translate into different levels of commitment to democracy? Survey asked two relevant questions: Which form of government do you think is best for Bangladesh? Which one of the following statements do you agree with most? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; in certain situations a dictatorial government can be preferable to a democratic one; it doesn’t matter. For each question, we used our two indices to see how far they predict people’s commitment to democracy, holding for other socio-economic variables as well.

Is democracy best? For the question on the best form of government, the rights index was not a significant predictor; the institutions index was significant and negative: the more importance people attached to institutions, the less they were committed to democracy Education was also significant and positive Income, rural location and age not significant Important to note that for all groups, commitment to democracy was still relatively high

Is democracy always best? When we look at whether people think that democracy is always best, both indices are significant: Institutions negative, rights positive. This mean that people who place more emphasis on rights tend towards a higher level of commitment to democracy, while people who put more emphasis on institutions tend to be less committed. Education again a significant positive driver of commitment. Rural location also positive and significant Age, gender, income don’t matter Again, overall levels of commitment high

“Islamic state is the best form of government for Bangladesh” What about religion? Two questions related to the status of religion in Bangladesh and, in particular, whether it should be an Islamic state. One question asked people whether Bangladesh should be an Islamic State; the other asked whether it should be an Islamic State or a democracy. When asked if it should be an Islamic state, ¾ of Muslims said yes; but when asked if Islamic state or democracy, almost 90% said democracy Clearly people support some idea of an Islamic State, but not necessarily a theocratic one, or one that is incommensurate with democracy % of total respondents. “Islamic state is the best form of government for Bangladesh” Dis-agree Agree Total “Bangladesh should be an Islamic state” 23.1 0.5 23.6 65.1 11.4 76.4 88.1 11.9 100.0

Rights, institutions and secularism When we look at people’s preference for an Islamic State with respect to our indices, the institutions index has no significant effect on support for an Islamic State, while the rights index has a positive effect on both This implies that people who are concerned primarily with the institutions of democracy are indifferent to the prospect of an Islamic State, while people who are concerned primarily with rights tend to be more in favour of an Islamic State. Confirms both a normative/moral dimension to the rights agenda and that the notion of an Islamic State is not necessarily a theocratic undemocratic one To note: Regressions also included socio- economic factors. On both, education was significant and negative; rural location significant and positive. Only Muslims included in regressions.

Summary of findings We have found clear evidence that the two different theoretical approaches to democratisation are reflected in different perceptions of democracy among the wider population An ‘institutions’/governance based perspective tend to find resonance among urban, educated middle classes and is indifferent to cultural and religious differences. This perspective is associated with a lower commitment to democracy. A ‘rights’ based perspective is less clearly associated with particular socio-economic groups, is more associated with a commitment to democracy, and appears to reflect religious differences and preference regarding an “Islamic State”

Implications for democratic consolidation Findings suggest a pragmatic paradox to replace the theoretical paradox with which we began: Both theoretical perspectives find ‘supporters’ in the wider population. Pushing a institutions-based approach is more likely to win the support of the crucial middle classes, but also may come at the cost of a lower commitment to democracy. Pushing a rights-based approach has a wider-support base and is linked to higher commitment to democracy. But: Does it have middle classes support Ongoing uncertainty about role of religion We recognise that we need middle class for social change, but putting the prospect for change in middle class preference is conservatiove option, in terms of pursuing wider redistributive effects….