JP Ford, CHB, ISHC, Principal, Global Director of Business Development

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Presentation transcript:

JP Ford, CHB, ISHC, Principal, Global Director of Business Development 2020 Forecast JP Ford, CHB, ISHC, Principal, Global Director of Business Development DONE

The State of the US Construction Pipeline Fast Facts The latest US Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics (LE), states that the total US Construction Pipeline ended Q2 2019 with 5,653 Projects/693,207 Rooms, up 6% by projects and 9% by rooms Year-Over-Year (YOY). There are 1,727 projects/233,600 rooms currently Under Construction, up 133 projects or 8%, YOY Projects Scheduled to Start Construction in the Next 12 Months, at 2,552 projects/295,989 rooms, are up 11% by projects and rooms, YOY Projects in Early Planning at 1,374 projects/ 163,618 rooms are down 4% by projects, but up 3% by rooms, YOY There are 3,422 new hotels with over 389,000 new rooms forecasted to open in the US between 2019-2021 Done. 2

US Lodging Real Estate Cycle Current Quarter: Q219 with 5,653 Projects/693,207 Rooms Last Cycle Peak: Q208 with 5,883 Projects/785,547 Rooms Last Cycle Bottom: Q112 with 2,720 Projects/331,129 Rooms Earnings Development Lending Transactions Peak New Hotel Openings Wall St. Activity New Project Announcements Peak Operating Performance Done. Early Transaction Recovery Main Street Debt Availability Conversions/Renovations Early Operating Recovery X 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 3

US Construction Pipeline By Projects and Rooms 693 669 624 635 599 546 461 383 Rooms (000s) Done. Projects 3,020 3,645 4,413 4,960 5,151 5,312 5,530 5,653 4

US Construction Pipeline By Project Stage Year-Over-Year Q2 2019 Q2 2018 % Variance Projects Rooms Under Construction 1,727 233,600 1,594 208,509 8% 12% Starts Next 12 Months 2,552 295,989 2,291 266,878 11% Early Planning 1,374 163,618 1,427 159,114 -4% 3% Total Pipeline 5,653 693,207 5,312 634,501 6% 9% Done. 5

US Construction Pipeline By Chain Scale with Unbranded Totals Displayed Q2 2019 Projects Rooms Luxury 78 20,764 Upper Upscale 305 64,851 Upscale 1,486 191,460 Upper Midscale 2,162 215,819 Midscale 852 68,311 Economy 119 12,307 Unbranded 626 107,431 Casino 25 12,264 Total 5,653 693,207 Done. % by rooms 6

US Construction Pipeline By Chain Scale with Unbranded Included Q2 2019 Projects Rooms Luxury 158 37,304 Upper Upscale 382 78,287 Upscale 1,692 231,938 Upper Midscale 2,318 236,024 Midscale 938 81,656 Economy 140 15,734 Casino 25 12,264 Total 5,653 693,207 Done. % by rooms 7

US Construction Pipeline By Branded and Unbranded Project Stage* Q2 2019 Q2 2018 % Variance Projects Rooms Under Construction Branded 1,557 199,963 1,441 181,311 8% 10% Unbranded 170 33,637 153 27,198 11% 24% Starts Next 12 Months 2,391 264,900 2,136 239,795 12% 161 31,089 155 27,083 4% 15% Early Planning 1,054 108,649 1,197 118,687 -12% -8% 320 54,969 230 40,427 39% 36% *Casino numbers included in unbranded 8

US Forecast New Hotel Openings By Rooms Growth Rate: 2.5% Growth Rate: 2.4% } Growth Rate: 2.2% 119,727 Done. 9

US Forecast New Hotel Openings By Chain Scale 2019 2020 2021 * = growth rate % by rooms Projects Rooms * Luxury 15 4,037 2.8 14 2,930 2.0 3,834 2.5 Upper Upscale 58 10,141 1.6 61 11,423 1.8 64 13,239 Upscale 279 35,728 4.5 308 39,690 4.7 339 41,312 Upper Midscale 448 45,677 4.2 507 49,165 4.3 489 48,254 4.1 Midscale 121 10,367 2.4 152 12,150 207 16,113 3.6 Economy 36 3,281 0.4 41 0.5 20 2,396 0.3 Unbranded 92 9,129 0.7 76 9,486 0.8 69 10,314 Casino 6 1,367 0.6 2 650 4 4,331 Total 1,055 119,727 2.2 1,161 129,531 1,206 139,793 Done. 10

US Construction Pipeline Selected Markets by Rooms Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Projects Rooms Pipeline rooms as a % of 2Q19 Census Pipeline rooms as a % of 2Q18 Census New York, NY 166 28,231 23.2 169 29,365 25.2 Los Angeles, CA 158 25,428 24.3 121 18,037 17.5 Orlando, FL 100 20,190 15.1 77 15,581 11.8 Dallas, TX 162 19,972 21.7 156 18,908 21.3 Atlanta, GA 130 17,280 16.8 101 12,869 12.7 Done. 11

US Construction Pipeline Selected Markets by Rooms (cont.) Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Projects Rooms Pipeline rooms as a % of 2Q19 Census Pipeline rooms as a % of 2Q18 Census Nashville, TN 121 16,576 35.7 123 16,392 38.2 Houston, TX 146 14,998 17.0 150 16,321 19.3 Austin, TX 104 13,241 32.7 95 11,574 29.3 Washington, DC 76 11,470 9.9 70 11,591 10.2 Miami, FL 61 11,230 19.7 69 12,238 22.0 Done. 12

US Development Pipeline Top US Parent Companies New Construction Plus Conversions by Rooms Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Projects Rooms Average # Rooms per Project Marriott International 1,550 207,101 134 1,437 191,427 133 Hilton Worldwide 1,445 164,815 114 1,397 158,255 113 InterContinental Hotel Group 1,014 103,248 102 992 101,917 103 Best Western Hotels 296 26,329 89 280 24,807 Hyatt Hotels 120 19,411 162 77 15,666 203 Done. 13

US Construction Pipeline Top Markets by Census Room Count Q2 2019 Total Pipeline % of Total Pipeline Projects Rooms By Rooms Top 1-25 Markets 2,016 303,862 44% Top 26-50 Markets 1,039 128,444 18% Other Markets 2,598 260,901 38% 5,653 693,207 100% 14

Starts Next 12 & Early Planning Global Construction Pipeline by Region Q2 2019 vs. Q2 2018 United States Other Americas EMEA AP Construction Under Projects Rooms Q2 2019 1,727 233,600 413 67,346 1,279 257,962 3,146 633,490 Q2 2018 1,594 208,509 445 73,959 1,167 245,698 2,782 604,851 YOY Variance 8% 12% -7% -9% 10% 5% 13% Starts Next 12 & Early Planning 3,926 459,607 570 91,833 1,352 230,959 1,638 353,126 3,718 425,992 545 85,172 1,098 193,402 1,490 320,839 6% 23% 19% Total Pipeline 5,653 693,207 983 159,179 2,631 488,921 4,784 986,616 5,312 634,501 990 159,131 2,265 439,100 4,272 925,690 9% <-1% <1% 16% 11% 7% Done. 15

Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Top Five Countries YOY by Rooms Q219 Q218 % Variance Projects Rooms China 2,991 592,884 2,523 556,645 19% 7% Indonesia 378 63,196 394 66,759 -4% -5% Vietnam 136 57,050 125 39,604 9% 44% Japan 226 47,294 206 41,146 10% 15% Malaysia 138 37,760 140 37,332 -1% 1% 16

Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Select Cities YOY by Rooms Q219 Q218 % Variance Projects Rooms Guangzhou, China 140 27,945 108 26,022 30% 7% Chengdu, China 115 24,328 88 20,051 31% 21% Shanghai, China 125 23,361 121 24,759 3% -6% Hangzhou, China 80 17,185 79 17,904 1% -3% Jakarta, Indonesia 16,112 101 19,325 -13% -17% Done. 17

Europe Construction Pipeline Top Five Countries YOY by Rooms Q219 Q218 % Variance Projects Rooms Germany 320 57,689 247 47,155 30% 22% United Kingdom 280 40,970 36,487 13% 12% France 184 22,140 130 15,198 42% 46% Poland 85 13,317 80 12,221 6% 9% Spain 76 12,020 75 11,338 1% Done. 18

Europe Construction Pipeline Select Cities YOY by Rooms Q219 Q218 % Variance Projects Rooms London, United Kingdom 78 13,632 80 13,722 -3% <-1% Dusseldorf, Germany 52 10,178 35 7,606 49% 34% Paris, France 54 7,946 41 5,877 32% 35% Hamburg, Germany 32 6,581 24 5,280 33% 25% Munich, Germany 30 5,780 25 5,543 20% 4% Done. 19

Latin America Construction Pipeline Top Five Countries YOY by Rooms Q219 Q218 % Variance Projects Rooms Mexico 203 36,188 181 33,071 12% 9% Brazil 156 25,991 212 34,559 -26% -25% Dominican Republic 35 11,053 26 9,452 35% 17% Cuba 7,933 8,643 - -8% Colombia 46 7,267 63 9,623 -27% -24% Done. 20

Latin America Construction Pipeline Select Cities YOY by Rooms Q219 Q218 % Variance Projects Rooms Cancun, Mexico 19 8,947 8,173 - 9% Mexico City, Mexico 28 4,849 16 2,893 75% 68% Lima, Peru 31 4,782 33 5,399 -6% -11% Cartagena, Colombia 2,954 17 2,968 <-1% Sao Paulo, Brazil 2,704 3,564 -24% Done. 21

US Transactions with a Reported Selling Price Average Selling Price Per Room (000s) Done 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 19 >200 Rooms 175 178 138 146 156 41 <200 Rooms 929 1,110 935 802 619 222 Total Transactions 1,104 1,288 1,073 948 775 263 22

US Lodging Real Estate: Total Investment by Dollars* As Buyers As Sellers 2017 2018 2019 YTD Privately Held Companies Equity Funds 4,133 6,233 1,808 4,412 7,287 1,761 Hotel Companies 4,119 9,214 1,740 5,186 6,135 2,624 Individual Owners 3,267 2,652 1,257 2,777 3,576 611 Publicly Traded Companies REITs 4,451 2,507 1,244 2,107 3,419 1,594 160 1,214 487 1,534 1,153 212 Other Entities All Other Entities 718 347 352 832 597 87 Total Dollar Volume 16,848 22,167 6,889 Add conversions notes * $ in millions 23

New Brand Announcements Since January 2015* 24

Takeaways Pipeline growth slowed from the 1st quarter of 2019 to the 2nd quarter. The 3rd and 4th quarters will tell us if we are headed to a new plateau or if we are in a topping out formation…stay tuned Many new hotels are expected to open in 2020 and 2021 based on what is under construction now and what is scheduled to start in the next 12 months Dual-branded developments are the solution to capturing multiple guest profiles Large stock market swings, trade tariffs, interest rates, and a new election cycle provide a sense of uneasiness Sales transactions for year-end 2019 are likely to fall far short of 2018 totals If you are an owner, it is still a great time to sell and take your profits given the sales cycle and looming interest rate hikes 25

Thank You JP Ford CHB, ISHC, Principal, Director of Global Business Development Office: +1 603.427.9550 Mobile: +1 603.770.0767 Email: jpford@LodgingEconometrics.com DONE