Space Resources: Promising and Problematic? “The Miner’s Lament” Matthew H. Hersch, JD, PhD Assistant Professor of the History of Science October 15, 2018

“If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong.” —Arthur C. Clarke

The issue is not possibility, but legality (and profitability).

It’s Illegal.

Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (1967) Article II Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.

There has never been a large-scale resource extraction effort that wasn’t exploitative.

The key to profitable extraction is cheap labor.

Otherwise, it isn’t profitable.

Extractive labor is dangerous and low-paid Extractive labor is dangerous and low-paid. Workers’ lives have always been valued less than their equipment or the commodities they produce.

Extractive industries often control workers’ access to housing and food, overcharging them and driving them further into debt with each day they work.

Law enforcement near extractive industries is often corrupt and weak Law enforcement near extractive industries is often corrupt and weak. Labor abuses produce violence, and violence produced oppressive overreaction.

Extractive industries are very effective at manipulating political institutions to prevent regulation and labor organization.

Historically, abuses on Earth have been egregious.

North American colonists produced lumber, iron, tobacco, fish, fur, and foodstuffs. The value of these exports did not exceed that of imports of manufactured goods.

This trade imbalance drained the colonies’ hard currency and oppressed them economically, resulting in revolution.

Only slavery made export agriculture profitable in the South.

We should expect worse abuses in space, where law enforcement is nonexistent, regulation is impossible, no one can hear you scream, and bodies are easy to dispose of.

One would need to extract something of tremendous, immediate value to make it worthwhile for any entity responsive to banks and shareholders.

Even gold mining on Earth is barely profitable; extraction costs at least $1,000/ounce. It would cost more to fail in space than succeed on Earth.

Commodity pricing is sensitive to supply Commodity pricing is sensitive to supply. You can extract your way into bankruptcy.

Astronauts are an expensive labor force; our robots aren’t smart enough yet; slavery is impractical because there are no space aliens to enslave. Also, there are moral/legal objections.

The real money is in assistive technologies The real money is in assistive technologies. Those who make and sell them will prosper even when the first-movers fail.

Advice: Exploit the enthusiasm, cash in while you can, and bet on failure. In time, second-movers will buy undervalued assets cheaply, consolidate, and prosper through labor exploitation.