Choking, or Clutch Performance in Basketball Choking, or Clutch Performance in Basketball? Elimination Games in NBA Playoffs Luis Paz de la Vega California State University, Northridge Travis J. Miller UC Riverside

Overview Morgulev & Galily (2018) Commentary Conclusion

Morgulev & Galily (2018) Morgulev and Galily (2018) gathered 33 years of NBA playoff data (1984-2016; n = 1930 games) Based on expected utility theory, the authors hypothesized that “players performing with their backs against the wall will exert more effort than their opponents, that is, will win more often.” They also argued that the NBA, as a whole, has a clear financial incentive for prolonged playoff series It was suggested that “The team that has lost more games in the series will likely lose another rather than mobilize itself and outperform its opponent.” Prolonged playoff series as an incentive sounds more like a conspiracy theory than actual sound hypothesis.

Morgulev & Galily (2018) Analysis found that teams playing with their back against the wall lost more often This effect remained significant in the models after they controlled for the general strength of the teams in each playoff series Data was collected from NBA.com NBA playoff series in each round tend to be series of seven games. The winning team is the one who wins four of these seven games Original data set 2542 games. 612 were removed due to the “best of Five” series no longer being a part of the NBA Playoffs. Format was removed in 2003 The removal of the best of 5 series could have affected the overall analysis since it removed any upsets that occurred in the first round of those years. Some examples include: Houston #6 over Utah #3 in 1995, Charlotte Hornets #6 over Miami Heat #3 in 2001, New York Knicks #8 over Miami Heat #1 in 1998, Seattle SuperSonics #7 over Dallas Mavericks #2 1987, and Denver Nuggets #8 over Seattle SuperSonics #1 in 1994.

Morgulev & Galily (2018) So… what is going on here? Why is it harder for teams to win when they are behind in a series, or conversely, easier for teams to win when they are leading in a series? Data was collected from NBA.com NBA playoff series in each round tend to be series of seven games. The winning team is the one who wins four of these seven games Original data set 2542 games. 612 were removed due to the “best of Five” series no longer being a part of the NBA Playoffs. Format was removed in 2003 The removal of the best of 5 series could have affected the overall analysis since it removed any upsets that occurred in the first round of those years. Some examples include: Houston #6 over Utah #3 in 1995, Charlotte Hornets #6 over Miami Heat #3 in 2001, New York Knicks #8 over Miami Heat #1 in 1998, Seattle SuperSonics #7 over Dallas Mavericks #2 1987, and Denver Nuggets #8 over Seattle SuperSonics #1 in 1994.

Commentary Morgulev and Galily (2018) approached the pressure of playoff elimination games from the viewpoint of economic literature The purpose of our presentation is to offer an alternate perspective, based on sport psychology literature

Commentary The authors describe expected utility theory as when the cost of loss is high, more effort is put towards winning They are hypothesizing that such effort will be enough for a team to be successful under the pressure of an elimination game This makes the assumption that the losing team has not already put optimal effort prior to the elimination game Perhaps it would be more fruitful to approach it from a point of view of ability instead of effort Optimum effort can only elevate an individual or team to the highest level of their ability (Heider,1958)

Commentary Sport psychology literature tells us that performance will often change when there is pressure This performance change is dependent on both situational and personal factors Choking should not be expected, as clutch play is also possible

Commentary Choking is defined as when a person, or team, underperforms their expectations or the expectations set for them Clutch performance is defined as one that is better than usual, compared to one’s own personal average, that occurs when there is pressure

Commentary Morgulev and Galily (2018) concluded that the team facing elimination is more likely than usual to lose the next game. By extension, the team that is one game from winning the series may be more likely than usual to win It is equally possible that the team facing elimination chokes, or that the team on the verge of advancing is clutch

Commentary We would argue that it would be beneficial to dive into the statistics of these “critical” games to see if these teams are meeting their own averages This would show if a trailing team is choking or a leading team is being clutch in the face of pressure

Commentary Results suggested that the only situation when a home team did not face a “significant” home advantage was when the home team faced elimination The concern with this is that by this point the home team may have already demonstrated they are the inferior team by having fallen behind in the series The best predictor for future performance may be a team’s or players’ most recent, past performance

Conclusion The authors uncovered an interesting trend in NBA playoff elimination history. Our precautionary note is: do not assume this is because the trailing team chokes under pressure- perhaps the leading team is just ready to be clutch. The author states “The threat of severe losses hinders” performance, but we think the the winning team may have given a clutch performance instead, and/or was simply the better team

Questions?