Virginia Coal Power Generation

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Presentation transcript:

Virginia Coal Power Generation LT Trey Dittberner, USN LT Edward Carlton, USN

Agenda Background Network Setup Network Model Interdiction/Network Defense Further Research 11/24/2019

Background 2010 – 984.6 Million tons produced (US) US mines contain enough coal to last 241 years 11/24/2019

Background The state of Virginia produces 3.4 TWh/month from coal. Virginia Coal Flow, 2005 11/24/2019

Background Network Vulnerabilities Shipment (rail) problems/disruptions Cost increases Environmental Activism (Hippies) Terrorism 11/24/2019

Network Setup 11/24/2019

Network Setup 11/24/2019

Network Setup Note: Partial network only 11/24/2019

Network Model Set up as Min Cost Flow Fixed cost for rail transport Coal enters from Virginia mines or Imports Transported to power plants for consumption Coal can be moved from plant to plant as needed Network goal is to provide minimum required coal amounts at lowest cost 11/24/2019

Network Model All coal that enters the system is consumed Rail assumptions $9/mile, standard freight rail cost Capacity of one train = 1370 short tons Modeling Formulation Import from sea most expensive option Coal may move from node to node 11/24/2019

Interdiction/Network Defense 11/24/2019

Interdiction/Network Defense The network is highly vulnerable to cost changes Network can recover from disrupted arcs, but at increasing cost 11/24/2019

Network Attacks 11/24/2019

Interdiction/Network Defense Node subject to most attacks: Chesapeake Less than 8 attacks, pattern appears nested At 11 attacks, costs rise dramatically Power plants with greatest capacity are frequently target (logical). 11/24/2019

Further Research Varying plant capacity More detailed train movement Vary turnaround time Account for coal exports Account for varying plant efficiencies Account for each plant as sole/multi-source of power for geographic region Model cost of compliance with environmental regulations 11/24/2019

References Virginia Energy Patterns and Trends (VEPT) http://www.energy.vt.edu/vept/index.asp US Department of Energy 11/24/2019

Questions? 11/24/2019

Backup 11/24/2019