Global circulation of respiratory viruses: from local observations to global predictions  Jean-Michel Heraud, Norosoa Harline Razanajatovo, Cecile Viboud  The Lancet Global Health  Volume 7, Issue 8, Pages e982-e983 (August 2019) DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30277-3 Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure Comparison of model predictions and observations in Antananarivo, Madagascar (A) Predictions of respiratory syncytial virus epidemic months. (B) Predictions of influenza virus epidemic months. (C) Observations of respiratory syncytial virus epidemic months. (D) Observations of influenza virus epidemic months. Predictions are based on the publicly available online tool developed by Li and colleagues,2 using a climate-based model to drive the proportion of viruses isolated in each month of the year. Observations are based on the average monthly detections for respiratory syncytial virus and influenza virus at the National Influenza Center (Institut Pasteur de Madagascar), Madagascar, 2011–18. Vertical bars are 95% CIs. Respiratory syncytial virus activity is more seasonal and occurs earlier than predicted by the model. By contrast, influenza virus circulates year-round, with increased activity in the first half of the year, with two epidemic peaks occurring during the first and the second quarter. The model predicts increased influenza virus circulation in the middle of the year. The Lancet Global Health 2019 7, e982-e983DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30277-3) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions